Congressional races to watch

By Jamey Dunn

With several congressional seats in play, big money has been thrown into Illinois races and big-name politicians are making pitches for candidates as part of the national battle over the U.S. House.

U.S. House Races

8th District 
U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, a Republican from McHenry, may lose his seat to Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth from Hoffman Estates. The race has been close, but Duckworth, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs, has pulled ahead in the polls in recent weeks.

10th District
U.S. Rep. Robert Dold, a Republican from Kenilworth, is running for reelection in a highly Democratic district created under the recent remap. U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, who is recovering from a recent stroke, has come out in support of Dold and appeared in a campaign ad. Dold faces Democratic candidate Brad Schneider, a businessman from Deerfield. Kirk was able to hold his U.S. House seat in a similar district for years before he ran for U.S. Senate.

11th District 
Kirk also appeared in an online video to throw his support behind Republican U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert of Hinsdale. Former President Bill Clinton voiced a robocall in support of Democratic challenger Bill Foster, a scientist from Naperville. Foster served previously in the U.S. House after being elected in 2008. He lost his seat in the Republican wave of 2010.

12th District 
Bill Enyart, a Democrat from Belleville, if facing off against former Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, Jason Plummer from Fairview Heights. Plummer, a naval officer who works for his family’s lumber and hardware store chain, had an early lead in the polls. But according to some recent polling, Enyart, former head of the Illinois National Guard, appears to have bounced back. Those who have been keeping tabs on this race expect it to be close. “When it’s very close, it all comes down to which side does a better job on turning out their troops, and I’m not clear what the prospects there are,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. Both Kirk and Clinton have recorded robocalls to support their partys' candidates in the race. Democratic U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello, who is retiring this year, held his seat in this area for more than 24 years.

13th District 
After U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson announced his plans to retire, Republicans chose Rodney Davis, a former staffer for U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, to run in the district. David Gill, a doctor from Bloomington, won out in the Democratic primary. John Hartman, an Edwardsville resident and chief financial officer of a genetic research company, is running as an independent. This has been a close race, but some observers are predicting a Davis win. “Davis should win because I think he is a much better fit for the [demographics of the] district,” said Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield.

17th District 
U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling of Colona won his seat with backing from the Tea Party in 2010. Democratic challenger Cheri Bustos of East Moline is a former news reporter and East Moline City Council member. This is another close race, with Schilling leading in recent polls.

Jackson predicts that Illinois Democrats will make some gains in Congress, but he predicts that those victories will not turn be enough to place the party back in control of the U.S. House. “I think Democrats are likely to pick up about three of the contested five [seats]. There are five for sure, maybe six, [seats in play],” he said. “But that won’t do it to take back the House.”’

Redfield agreed. He said that Democratic map makers in Illinois may have helped the party have a shot at more congressional seats, but many other states had Republicans in power for redistricting. “There are states where the Democrats are at as much of a disadvantage as the Republicans are here, in terms of who drew the map.” Jackson also cautioned against seeing these races as just about the new map. He points to downstate races, such as the 12th District and the 13th District, where Democrats are putting up fights but in no way have a lock on the seats. “The ability to draw that map, though, is still just a marginal benefit,” he said. “It still didn’t make it a sure win for the Democrats.”

President Barack Obama is obviously favored to win his Democratic-leaning home state over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Redfield and Jackson both said it is unlikely that either candidate will have powerful enough coattails to decide down-ticket races. However, Jackson said that the presidential race has set the tone and issues for negative ads in congressional and state legislative races. “Everybody gets blasted by being associated with Obama or being associated with Romney,” he said. “It’s just a constant litany of the national ads adapted to the local races.”

Senate approves moving primary date back

By Rachel Wells

The Illinois Senate today approved a measure that would move the primary election date from the first Tuesday in February to the third Tuesday in March.

Carlinville Democrat Sen. Deanna Demuzio, the sponsor of SB 355, said the March date would counter problems such as low voter-turnout, difficulty finding available election judges and lack of time to properly vet candidates, as seen in the February 2010 primary.

Some senators said an April or May date – when the weather likely would be more agreeable and retirees serving as election judges would not be wintering in warmer states – would better solve those problems.

Republicans warned against moving the date with one candidate in mind again. The General Assembly moved the primary date up for the 2008 primary, when then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama was running for president. “It’s a little embarrassing for some of us to stand up and say it’s appropriate to move a public process for one political candidate,” said Mattoon Republican Sen. Dale Righter. “I hope we don’t make this mistake again. “

Demuzio said she would be open to considering a later date but emphasized the importance of tradition.

“This particular bill … goes back to that traditional date that we’re all familiar with and our constituents are familiar with, and hopefully the sun will shine on that particular date,” Demuzio said.

Tax news and something fun (updated)

The Taxpayers’ Federation of Illinois' board of trustees voted to provide “qualified support” to SB 572, Rep. Julie Hamos’s measure to give a much-needed boost to Chicago-area transit and to give some more money for operating costs of downstate public transit systems. I’ll try to post the association’s position statement as soon as it’s available.

Here's the federation's statement supporting Hamos' legislation:
• "TFI supports the pension, healthcare, and governance reforms in the bill. TFI has taken the position that reforms to spending, such as spending on pensions and healthcare, should be prerequisites to any increases in revenue. TFI believes that the reforms agreed to between the Chicago Transit Authority (“CTA”) and the relevant unions to, among other things, increase contribution rates and increase the retirement age to 65 are positive steps to reining in costs. TFI believes these reforms are an example of the types of reforms the State should undertake in the future to reduce its own cost structure."

• "TFI supports the sales tax increases in the bill as reasonable, targeted increases to fund transit needs. Given that transit use is regional to a particular area, TFI believes an increase in the sales taxes in Chicagoland is a reasonable revenue source since it will be targeted primarily on the taxpayers of the area that is serviced by the Regional Transportation Authority (“RTA”)."

• "TFI previously worked with the Illinois Association of Realtors (“IAR”) to obtain the referendum requirement for home rule municipalities. The provision in SB 572 grants an exception to the requirement for the limited instance of this particular tax imposition in Chicago. While TFI is concerned about this exception, we acknowledge and support the fact that the bill does not rescind the overall requirement for home rule municipalities to seek voter approval of the imposition or increase of real estate transfer taxes."

• "TFI also believes that reasonable fare increases designed to reflect the growth in operational costs should be part of any future fiscal considerations of the RTA and its service boards."

Tax climate
The national Tax Federation also released its 2008 State Business Tax Climate Index, which is supposed to rank states based on how “business friendly” they are. The news release says the index “measures how well a state's tax system encourages investment by maintaining a broad tax base and low rates.” It considers the corporate tax, individual income tax, sales tax, unemployment tax and property tax.

Illinois places 28th overall. Here’s Illinois’ rankings in the sub-groups:
Corporate income tax: 29th
Individual income tax: 12th
Sales tax: 32nd
Unemployment insurance tax: 42
And property tax: 40

The report says Illinois, along with Pennsylvania, Indiana, Michigan and Colorado, are in the top 12 for the individual property tax because each state uses a single, low rate. Watch for my November column about Chicago's property tax system.

Illinois placed 27th overall last year and 29th in 2006. That’s down from placing 19th in 2003, the first year the group published the report.

“Good state tax systems levy low, flat rates on the broadest bases possible, and they treat all taxpayers the same,” the federation says. “Variation in the tax treatment of different industries favors on economic activity or decision over another. The more riddled a tax system is with these politically motivated preferences the less likely it is that business decisions will be made in response to market forces.”

Here’s the executive summary of the background paper, and here’s the full background paper. You can access the full report here.

By the way, this is the same group that said Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s failed gross receipts tax idea was the “largest single-year state tax increase this decade.” I mention that in my May feature about the state’s business climate. Watch for more analysis by Charlie Wheeler, director of the Public Affairs Reporting master’s program at the University of Illinois at Springfield, next month.

Something fun
You may be interested to see which presidential candidates align with your views. WQAD News Channel 8 linked to this 11-question survey, which is not scientific, developed by Minnesota Public Radio. It’s here. It's quick and easy, but the site says it's not meant to pick your candidate for you. It's designed to inform the public about the candidates' stances on a variety of issues.

Presidential Preference Poll

As the race for president heats up this fall, Dick Schuldt at the University of Illinois' Survey Research Office of the Center for State Policy and Leadership gives us an idea of how Illinois voters feel about the candidates in each political party. In short, Illinois' "favorite son," U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, holds a commanding lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Here's the summary.
The breakdown of Democratic preferences is here.
The Republican breakdown is here.