Republican primary officially a four-way race

Sen. Kirk Dillard today jumped into the 2014 gubernatorial race.

In recent months Dillard, a Hinsdale Republican, made it no secret that he planned to run, but he officially kicked off his campaign today with a series of news conferences throughout the state. Dillard now joins three other Republican candidates in the race: businessman Bruce Rauner, State Treasurer Dan Rutherford and Sen. Bill Brady.

Dillard and Brady faced each other in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, which Brady won. Brady went on to lose the general election to Gov. Pat Quinn. Brady announced in June that he would make his third run for governor. “It’s time to finish the job we started four years ago,” Brady said at a Springfield stop on his campaign launch tour of the state. “Illinois can grow and prosper again. It starts with putting the right leadership at the top. There’s a lot of work to be done, and it is time to finish the job we started.” Brady made the case that his failed bid for governor helped to make him the best-known candidate out of the four Republicans. He also said that he and his team had “learned” from the defeat.

Dillard served as chief of staff to former Gov. Jim Edgar, and it seems likely his campaign will play up his experience. Edgar, who endorsed Dillard in 2009, has said that he would likely back Dillard if the state senator chose to run again. A new ad on Dillard's campaign website describes him as “more tested” and “better prepared” than his opponents. “He doesn’t need to go on a listening tour of the state; his entire life has been a listening tour. He’s heard the people of Illinois, and he knows what to do,” the ad says. The line appears to be a shot at Rauner, who took a listening tour of Illinois before announcing his own bid for the governor’s office. Rauner has already raised more than $1 million and has substantial private wealth to tap. He is expected to outspend his Republican opponents.

In Chicago, the first campaign stop of several that Dillard is making across the state today, he pitched himself as the Republican who can “win a general election” and go on to be an effective leader afterward. “It's not just enough to elect a Republican governor,” he said. “You have to be someone who can work with Democratic legislators.”

Republicans look for lessons from last week's defeats

By Jamey Dunn

After suffering serious losses in last week’s election, Illinois Republicans agree that they have lessons to learn from their defeats. However, what those lessons are depend on whom you talk to.

Many Republicans have taken notice that the demographics in Illinois and across the nation are not shifting in the party’s favor. “What I think we have seen in Illinois is kind of the realignment politically of this state, and it’s something that the Republicans have to really worry about because our base really was the suburbs. That’s really what got us the margin to offset Chicago. That’s not there anymore. In fact, it many not even be Republican anymore,” said former Gov. Jim Edgar, a Republican.

Edgar has been arguing for years that the party must reach out to Latinos. He notes that he and former President George W. Bush both enjoyed some support from Latino voters because they did not take hard lines on immigration policy. “Unfortunately the congressional Republicans took a different approach a few years ago, and I think cost us any support out of the Hispanic community. And I think [failed Republican presidential candidate] Gov. [Mitt] Romney demonstrated that he went the wrong way on that issue, and it hurt him on Election Day.”

Edgar said that some Republicans must change their thinking on immigration to survive politically. “Besides the politics of it, it’s just the right thing to do. We have 10 [million] to 12 million people here who have been here for years undocumented. We need to deal with that. We can’t deport them. And these people contribute.” According to the Pew Research Center’s analysis of exit polls, Latinos made up 10 percent of the national electorate for last week’s election. That number is up from 9 percent in 2008 and 8 percent in 2004. This year, 71 percent of voting Latinos supported President Barack Obama.

“The Republican Party should be a party that appeals to Hispanics,” said John Tillman, chief operating officer of the Illinois Policy Institute. The institute describes itself as a nonpartisan think tank devoted to promoting “free market” ideas and policies. Tillman penned a an opinion piece, "Four Lessons from Election 2012," which can be found at the conservative blog Illinois Review. “I think Republicans are perceived to be hostile to immigrants. I don’t think its true because I’ve talked to enough to know it’s not true.”

Republicans and others seem to agree that the party needs to work on recruiting better candidates who can win in a general election. “It’s not enough to win the primary. You’ve got to win the general election, and you’ve got to find candidates who will be able. Not to sell out your principles, but that can appeal to more than just a bunch of white males. I think we have tendency as a party, we talk too much to each other, and a lot of our folks, they just watch Fox News and they listen to [conservative radio show host Rush] Limbaugh. I think they don’t have an accurate view of the world. So hopefully they have learned,” Edgar said.

Kent Redfield, professor emeritus of political science with the University of Illinois Springfield, said House Minority Leader Tom Cross and Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno may need to be more hands-on when it comes to scouting candidates and backing them in the Republican primary election. While they may give some financial support, both leaders tend to stay out of the bulk of primary fights and do not typically step in to vocally back a candidate.

Tillman said Republicans need to look beyond familiar faces. “The [Illinois] Republican Party establishment is too focused on recruiting talent on who you know and what relationships you have. Republicans need to broaden their thinking and try to find talent from outside of the party establishment.”

Some say the party's problem is messaging. Sen. Kyle McCarter, who is considering challenging Radogno for her leadership seat, said his caucus should have taken a stronger stand on controversial issues such as budget cuts and pension reform. “As Republicans, we can’t just say, ‘No.’ We’ve got to put some detailed plans on the table that really show how we as a state can get out of this fiscal mess.” Senate Republicans have come together to back a budget plan that they put down on paper, but McCarter said they should have introduced the plan as legislation. “I think it’s something that we should have done in this last session. We should have put that in bill form on the table,” he said. “Since I’ve been here, the leadership of the Republican Party has been much too risk-averse.”

While many blame the new legislative map drawn by Democrats as the primary factor for the sweeping Republican losses, McCarter said it’s more than that. “I don’t think the map is a good enough excuse. There’s two other factors, and that’s money and message, and I think we came up short in both of those,” he said.

Redfield said McCarter has demonstrated that he can bring at least one of the two to the table. “Clearly, McCarter is ready to go. He got conservative money funneled through him [in the 2012 election cycle],” Redfield said. Turning to potentially more conservative leadership might help Senate Republicans find campaign money in the short-term, but it could also make it more difficult to reach those growing demographics that Republicans are currently falling flat with. “It is maybe not the best self-awareness in terms of where the party needs to go to rebuild.”

Dan Proft, a talk show host with WLS radio in Chicago, said that Illinois Republicans do not have a clear platform on many issues that are most important to voters, such as education. “Blame Democrats, and we’re for the opposite of what they’re for. Well that’s not good enough, clearly,” he said. “What’s the Republican Party vision on K-12? Education is important. What is your vision, and how does that compare with the Democrats in charge?”

While he said that Republicans should not refuse to cooperate for the sake of obstruction, Proft, who made a failed bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2010, said that the current legislative leaders should have gotten better deals on some of the bipartisan plans they agreed to. “They take bread crumbs and really become co-conspirators in bad public policy,” he said. “The approach is not to be the junior partners to the Chicago Democrats.”

Tillman agreed. “The Republican caucuses have been too focused on trying to make bad Democrat policies marginally better rather than having a clear brand-distinguishing alternative vision that they promote vigorously.” He was critical of Republican legislative leaders for their compromises with Democrats. “In terms of the Republican caucuses, with the Democrats having a supermajority, if leaders continue the pattern of seeking a seat at the table rather than providing a clear party-in-exile alternative, the rank and file members, investors and grassroots activists must demand changes. Regardless, the status quo is untenable,” Tillman wrote in his opinion piece.

 But Radogno defended her ability to compromise, especially on the recently approved Medicaid reform package. The set of laws is expected to reduce the state’s Medicaid liability by more than $1.5 billion. The deal included $1-a-pack cigarette tax increase and a provision that allowed Cook County to grow its Medicaid program in anticipation of the expansion that will kick in under the Affordable Care Act. Those two components of the plan were in stand-alone bills, and Republicans were able to vote against them without sinking the entire compromise.

“For Sen. Radogno, I think if the Democratic majority put forth a good idea, then she will be willing to support a good idea,” said Radogno spokeswoman Patty Schuh. She said Republicans were able to back Medicaid cuts and reforms that they have been proposing for years. And now, she said, Radogno and others will keep the pressure on Gov. Pat Quinn to ensure that those ideas are implemented.

However, Schuh said proposals to increase taxes, borrow or make spending decisions that would make it difficult to allow the income tax increase to sunset as planned would continue to be nonstarters with Republican leadership in the Senate.

Schuh said that the 19 Republicans who are left in the Senate should not spend their terms sitting on their hands to make a political point. “The one thing to remember is, obviously, our numbers are low, but remember in so many legislative districts in the state of Illinois, 46, 47, 48, 49 percent of the people believe in the message of low taxes, less spending and reining in big government, and those people deserve to be represented.”

Edgar said those who point to the compromises made by legislative leadership as a cause of Republican losses last week are dead wrong. “Most people don’t really know who did what in the legislature. They know the final product,” he said. “If anything, I think the Republicans would be far better off to look like they are willing to reach across the aisle. I think that’s what people want. People don’t want more polarization. If the right wing still thinks that, they didn’t learn anything from this election. They haven’t been out there talking to ordinary folks.”

 He added: “I don’t think you can blame Cross and Radogno. The problem is, they had terrible districts and they didn’t have the money. People give to who has power, and we didn’t have the power.”

But Edgar does see a possible bright spot in the future for the party. “The governor’s race in Illinois in two years is huge for the Republican Party. If we can win the governor’s office back, then we have a viable two party system in Illinois,” he said. “But we’ve got to make sure that we have a candidate who not only appeals to Republicans but who also appeals to independents and thoughtful Democrats because you’ve got to have those. There [are] not enough Republicans in the state to get elected dog catcher. You’ve got to go out and get people who don’t view themselves as Republican. That means that you’re going to have to make sure the candidate appeals to the center.”

 Edgar warned that Republicans should not look at Quinn’s low public approval ratings and assume they have the governor’s race in the bag. “I think we have an opportunity, but it’s only an opportunity -- no guarantee. We’ve got to get our act together.”

Income tax talk heats up

By Jamey Dunn

As Gov. Pat Quinn gears up to lobby the legislature for an income tax increase during the upcoming veto session, former Republican Gov. Jim Edgar said Quinn’s election victory could make the job easier.

Quinn called on Republican and Democratic leadership in the General Assembly today to support his 1 percentage point increase in the income tax, which he says will be used to support education. He said he plans to start calling legislators about the plan this week and will be in Springfield when legislative session starts up again next week.

“I would say to all the legislative leaders of both parties and both houses that it’s high time that we work on that issue. The message of this election is: We have to fund our schools, and we have to do it in a proper way. And we’re going to keep that message going as long as necessary to make sure legislators keep their eye on the ball. … I am confident that reality will set in and the right thing to do will set in,” Quinn said at a Chicago news conference.

When the Illinois Senate was back in legislative session last week, Senate President John Cullerton reiterated his stance that it is up to the Illinois House to take up the tax issue because Democrats in his chamber passed a tax increase last year. He added that if the House passes a different tax increase, his members would consider it. During the same conversation with reporters, Cullerton said the Senate plans to consider a gambling expansion during veto session as a way to increase state revenues.

While Quinn did not say he would veto a gaming expansion bill, he said he was not excited about the idea. “You can’t gamble your way into prosperity in Illinois. … There’s no quick shortcut to prosperity. … I’m not enthused at all about gambling. Never have been.”

Quinn has made similar statements about gambling in the past, but he did approve legalizing video poker machines in some bars and restaurants across the state as a way to fund a capital construction bill.

Quinn has said that his election is a mandate from voters for a tax increase. While Edgar did not go so far as to agree with Quinn’s mandate claim, he said Quinn’s election should make approving a tax increase more “palatable” for legislators.

“Being for the income tax increase is not suicide in Illinois politics. Contrary to what all the pundits and everybody had thought for years. … You can be for an income tax, and you can be reelected,” Edgar said.

However, Edgar said an income tax increase should not be the only focus of debate because cuts are also necessary to address the state’s growing deficit.

“In many ways, those cuts are going to be probably more difficult to get agreement on than a tax increase. … I just hope that the debate doesn’t just continue to center on a tax increase, that we don’t ignore what I think is probably the more important of the two — and I think is going to be the more difficult — and that’s, ‘Where can we cut spending?’”

Edgar said if Quinn can come up with a comprehensive long-term plan that involves cuts along with an income tax increase, he would be willing to support it.

A look back at recount and the lt. gov's office

UPDATE: Scott Lee Cohen stepped down as the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor Sunday evening. The Illinois Democratic party will chose his replacement. Check back in the coming days for more updates.

Recount

By Jamey Dunn

Illinois laws relating to recounts may soon be implemented in a state race for the first time since they were passed.

While state Sen. Kirk Dillard from Hinsdale has not called for a recount yet, he is not giving up, either. He said he wants to wait until all the votes are counted before he decides. Dillard is vying with Sen Bill Brady from Bloomington for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

"All of the votes aren't in, and there could be between 5,000 and 10,000 votes still out there," Dillard said at a Chicago news conference today.

The last time a candidate requested a recount was in the 1982 governor's race. Republican candidate Jim Thompson led Adlai Stevenson III by a little more than 5,000 votes. Ron Michaelson, executive director of the Illinois State Board of Elections from 1976 to 2003, said that gap worked out to less than half of a vote per precinct at the time. “It was an incredibly close election. Probably the closest general election in the history of Illinois,” he said.

Instead of making a decision on Stevenson’s request, the Illinois Supreme Court found the recount law unconstitutional, leaving Stevenson with no recourse. Thompson became governor. The legislature changed the law, and it became what we have today.

“The law was fixed, but for state races, it has really never been used since then,” Michaelson said. He added that Dillard does not have to make up his mind about recount right away. “We’ve got a little time for everybody to figure out if they want to pursue it."

Michaelson pointed out that depending on the final numbers, other candidates also could ask for recounts. “Literally, even today, votes are still being counted,” he said. Concessions do not legally bind anyone to dropping out of a race. However, he said he doesn’t think it likely that anyone who has already conceded will ask for a recount.

Winners in all the races will not be declared until the votes are certified on March 5. Candidates then have five days to request a discovery recount.

Candidates can choose up to 25 percent of precincts for consideration, and they must foot the bill for the discovery recount. The Illinois Supreme Court then decides if the results warrant a sate-wide recount. If the Supreme Court gives the go ahead, the burden of cost then falls on the state.

Dillard said he doesn't think waiting to make a decision will hurt party unity. On the contrary, he said it is a plus for Republicans that the party has two candidates to carry its message.

Lieutenant governor

By Rachel Wells

Walker/Hartigan, Stevenson/Fairchild, Blagojevich/Quinn, and now Quinn/Cohen: Governors in Illinois, with a few exceptions, run a streak of less-than-happy lieutenant governor pairings.

So, while shocking, the latest pairing of incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn -- historically portrayed as a squeaky clean reformer -- and political newcomer Scott Lee Cohen -- a pawnshop owner accused of domestic battery -- isn’t entirely surprising. It’s history repeating itself, and we should have seen it coming, a few political observers agree.

“It could have been avoided,” said Mike Lawrence, retired director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. “When the current Constitution was enacted in 1970, it allowed the General Assembly to determine that the governor and lieutenant governor could be nominated jointly. The legislature has never followed up on that.”

Soon after the Constitution was ratified, alarm bells should have sounded in 1973 with the election of Neil Hartigan and Dan Walker, Lawrence said. As an anti-organization candidate, Gov. Walker clashed with Lt. Gov. Hartigan, a Chicago Machine ward committeeman.

Another warning that has since become infamous came in 1986. Although a slew of candidates organized by extremist Lyndon LaRouche Jr. failed to file complete petitions, the Democratic party, whose banner they were running under, put up no protest. The candidates, including eventual lieutenant governor nominee Mark Fairchild, were not seen as threats. To political onlookers’ surprise, Fairchild won the primary and was automatically paired with powerful former U.S. Sen. Adlai Stevenson III. Rather than partner with Fairchild, Stevenson ran under a specially minted party banner but lost to Republican Jim Thompson.

“It was a nightmare for the Democratic Party,” said Michaelson, the former director of the Illinois State Board of Elections. “Of course, the Republicans swept everything.”

“There was a wake up call in 1986, and the General Assembly continued to sleep,” Lawrence said. “I think it’s absolutely irresponsible that something wasn’t done about this a long time ago.”

Lawrence said tying the two positions together for the primary would be ideal. If the legislature doesn’t take action, Lawrence said, the lieutenant governor’s seat should be eliminated and the line of succession reorganized. Either way would help ensure a smooth transition if the governor became unable to serve.

Constitutional convention delegate Dawn Clark Netsch, now a professor at Northwestern University School of Law, said there was discussion in 1970 of eliminating the position, but the idea didn’t gain enough traction. “Probably the argument most made was [the lieutenant governor’s seat] provided another opening … for allowing people who maybe were not part of the establishment … another place for them to get their feet wet,” Netsch said. But, “I think it’s not that useful in that respect. We’ve got enough state elective offices. It certainly does lend itself to occasional problems, like now.”

“I can’t remember why we were not able to pass it after the ‘86 fiasco,” said Netsch, a former state comptroller and Democratic nominee for governor. “I’m sure there are political motivations, but I honestly don’t know what they are.”

Reaction to the 1986 race wasn’t about changing election policy, though, Michaelson said. “Most of the conversation revolved around the ineptness of the Democrats during the primary season.” Between blaming of the media and the party organization for not exposing Fairchild’s flaws, election policy didn’t get enough attention to effect change. The scandal over Cohen’s nomination is panning out in a similar way. Time will tell if it will move past finger-pointing to statutory change.

Besides the Quinn-Cohen situation, the 2010 primary had the potential for other tumultuous pairings because Republican lieutenant governor candidate Matt Murphy unofficially ran with governor candidate Andy McKenna. Former Gov. Jim Edgar on Thursday explained the problems at a post-election analysis:

Edgar insisted that a governor should have confidence in his lieutenant governor for the position to be at all functional.

In the same forum, David Yepson, current director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, called both Cohen and young Republican lieutenant governor nominee Jason Plummer “a bullet in a chamber.”

“Apparently nobody was paying attention to the office of lieutenant governor, and that allowed people to just go their own way and allowed somebody to put enough money (into the race),” Netsch said. “I think they’re going to be paying a little more attention (now). Of course, I thought that in 1986.”

Michaelson expects to hear more talk of abolishing the lieutenant governor seat. “The state is in a terrible position, but I don’t think it is because there is no lieutenant governor ”

Forsyth Republican Rep. Bill Mitchell is the sponsor of a constitutional amendment to eliminate the lieutenant governor's office. He said the fact that the office has been empty since Quinn became governor shows that it is unnecessary.

“I can think of no compelling reason to keep the office,” Mitchell said. “That being said, I think that recent events make my legislation all the more important.”

UPDATE: Voters would also have the chance to eliminate through constitutional amendment the lieutenant governor position, under a resolution introduced by House Speaker Michael Madigan February 10.

If lawmakers approve HJRCA 50, the measure could appear on the Nov. 2, 2010, general election ballot. The bill calls for abolishing the position in 2015 and would make the Attorney General next in line for the Governor’s seat.

Republican primary in retrospect

By Rachel Wells

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the lone downstate candidate, Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington, reaped the benefits of Chicago-land vote-splitting, former Gov. Jim Edgar said Thursday at a post-primary election analysis during a Thursday luncheon event in Springfield.

Starting with Jim Ryan’s decision to enter the race, Edgar addresses the Republican primary in the video below:

Throughout the primary campaign, Edgar said, Brady stood out as the only downstate Republican candidate against Adam Andrzejewski and Sen. Kirk Dillard, both of Hinsdale; Andy McKenna, Dan Proft and Jim Ryan, all of Chicago; and DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, who dropped out of the race but remained on the ballot.

He compared the situation to 1991, when Carol Mosely Braun took the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination after a three-way battle between Braun, incumbent Alan Dixon and political unknown Al Hofeld. The campaign scene turned negative between Dixon and Hofeld, with Braun relying on a chaotic but positive campaign. Braun took the majority of Chicago and pluralities in suburban Cook County and the collar counties. While Dixon was a downstater, Hofeld’s attacks and a general anti-incumbent mood left the two-term senator with only 49 percent of the downstate vote. Braun took 20 percent and Hofeld took 31 percent.

In Edgar’s opinion, negative campaigning played a role in McKenna’s defeat, too.

As of Thursday afternoon, Dillard was only a few hundred votes behind Brady and had not conceded. McKenna conceded Thursday afternoon. Edgar endorsed Dillard for the nomination last fall.

Edgar and David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, spoke Thursday on a number of election-related topics including: Republicans and the Hispanic vote, polling, voter turn-out, the U.S. Senate race and party unity. Check back over the next several days for more post-primary coverage and commentary from Edgar and Yepsen.

Thursday's event was sponsored by the Institute for Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois and the Center for State Policy and Leadership at the University of Illinois Springfield.