By Jamey Dunn
After suffering serious losses in last week’s election, Illinois Republicans agree that they have lessons to learn from their defeats. However, what those lessons are depend on whom you talk to.
Many Republicans have taken notice that the demographics in Illinois and across the nation are not shifting in the party’s favor. “What I think we have seen in Illinois is kind of the realignment politically of this state, and it’s something that the Republicans have to really worry about because our base really was the suburbs. That’s really what got us the margin to offset Chicago. That’s not there anymore. In fact, it many not even be Republican anymore,” said former Gov. Jim Edgar, a Republican.
Edgar has been arguing for years that the party must reach out to Latinos. He notes that he and former President George W. Bush both enjoyed some support from Latino voters because they did not take hard lines on immigration policy. “Unfortunately the congressional Republicans took a different approach a few years ago, and I think cost us any support out of the Hispanic community. And I think [failed Republican presidential candidate] Gov. [Mitt] Romney demonstrated that he went the wrong way on that issue, and it hurt him on Election Day.”
Edgar said that some Republicans must change their thinking on immigration to survive politically. “Besides the politics of it, it’s just the right thing to do. We have 10 [million] to 12 million people here who have been here for years undocumented. We need to deal with that. We can’t deport them. And these people contribute.”
According to the Pew Research Center’s analysis of exit polls, Latinos made up 10 percent of the national electorate for last week’s election. That number is up from 9 percent in 2008 and 8 percent in 2004. This year, 71 percent of voting Latinos supported President Barack Obama.
“The Republican Party should be a party that appeals to Hispanics,” said John Tillman, chief operating officer of the Illinois Policy Institute. The institute describes itself as a nonpartisan think tank devoted to promoting “free market” ideas and policies. Tillman penned a an opinion piece, "Four Lessons from Election 2012," which can be found at the conservative blog Illinois Review. “I think Republicans are perceived to be hostile to immigrants. I don’t think its true because I’ve talked to enough to know it’s not true.”
Republicans and others seem to agree that the party needs to work on recruiting better candidates who can win in a general election. “It’s not enough to win the primary. You’ve got to win the general election, and you’ve got to find candidates who will be able. Not to sell out your principles, but that can appeal to more than just a bunch of white males. I think we have tendency as a party, we talk too much to each other, and a lot of our folks, they just watch Fox News and they listen to [conservative radio show host Rush] Limbaugh. I think they don’t have an accurate view of the world. So hopefully they have learned,” Edgar said.
Kent Redfield, professor emeritus of political science with the University of Illinois Springfield, said House Minority Leader Tom Cross and Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno may need to be more hands-on when it comes to scouting candidates and backing them in the Republican primary election. While they may give some financial support, both leaders tend to stay out of the bulk of primary fights and do not typically step in to vocally back a candidate.
Tillman said Republicans need to look beyond familiar faces. “The [Illinois] Republican Party establishment is too focused on recruiting talent on who you know and what relationships you have. Republicans need to broaden their thinking and try to find talent from outside of the party establishment.”
Some say the party's problem is messaging. Sen. Kyle McCarter, who is considering challenging Radogno for her leadership seat, said his caucus should have taken a stronger stand on controversial issues such as budget cuts and pension reform. “As Republicans, we can’t just say, ‘No.’ We’ve got to put some detailed plans on the table that really show how we as a state can get out of this fiscal mess.”
Senate Republicans have come together to back a budget plan that they put down on paper, but McCarter said they should have introduced the plan as legislation. “I think it’s something that we should have done in this last session. We should have put that in bill form on the table,” he said. “Since I’ve been here, the leadership of the Republican Party has been much too risk-averse.”
While many blame the new legislative map drawn by Democrats as the primary factor for the sweeping Republican losses, McCarter said it’s more than that.
“I don’t think the map is a good enough excuse. There’s two other factors, and that’s money and message, and I think we came up short in both of those,” he said.
Redfield said McCarter has demonstrated that he can bring at least one of the two to the table. “Clearly, McCarter is ready to go. He got conservative money funneled through him [in the 2012 election cycle],” Redfield said. Turning to potentially more conservative leadership might help Senate Republicans find campaign money in the short-term, but it could also make it more difficult to reach those growing demographics that Republicans are currently falling flat with. “It is maybe not the best self-awareness in terms of where the party needs to go to rebuild.”
Dan Proft, a talk show host with WLS radio in Chicago, said that Illinois Republicans do not have a clear platform on many issues that are most important to voters, such as education. “Blame Democrats, and we’re for the opposite of what they’re for. Well that’s not good enough, clearly,” he said. “What’s the Republican Party vision on K-12? Education is important. What is your vision, and how does that compare with the Democrats in charge?”
While he said that Republicans should not refuse to cooperate for the sake of obstruction, Proft, who made a failed bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2010, said that the current legislative leaders should have gotten better deals on some of the bipartisan plans they agreed to. “They take bread crumbs and really become co-conspirators in bad public policy,” he said. “The approach is not to be the junior partners to the Chicago Democrats.”
Tillman agreed. “The Republican caucuses have been too focused on trying to make bad Democrat policies marginally better rather than having a clear brand-distinguishing alternative vision that they promote vigorously.” He was critical of Republican legislative leaders for their compromises with Democrats. “In terms of the Republican caucuses, with the Democrats having a supermajority, if leaders continue the pattern of seeking a seat at the table rather than providing a clear party-in-exile alternative, the rank and file members, investors and grassroots activists must demand changes. Regardless, the status quo is untenable,” Tillman wrote in his opinion piece.
But Radogno defended her ability to compromise, especially on the recently approved Medicaid reform package. The set of laws is expected to reduce the state’s Medicaid liability by more than $1.5 billion. The deal included $1-a-pack cigarette tax increase and a provision that allowed Cook County to grow its Medicaid program in anticipation of the expansion that will kick in under the Affordable Care Act. Those two components of the plan were in stand-alone bills, and Republicans were able to vote against them without sinking the entire compromise.
“For Sen. Radogno, I think if the Democratic majority put forth a good idea, then she will be willing to support a good idea,” said Radogno spokeswoman Patty Schuh. She said Republicans were able to back Medicaid cuts and reforms that they have been proposing for years. And now, she said, Radogno and others will keep the pressure on Gov. Pat Quinn to ensure that those ideas are implemented.
However, Schuh said proposals to increase taxes, borrow or make spending decisions that would make it difficult to allow the income tax increase to sunset as planned would continue to be nonstarters with Republican leadership in the Senate.
Schuh said that the 19 Republicans who are left in the Senate should not spend their terms sitting on their hands to make a political point. “The one thing to remember is, obviously, our numbers are low, but remember in so many legislative districts in the state of Illinois, 46, 47, 48, 49 percent of the people believe in the message of low taxes, less spending and reining in big government, and those people deserve to be represented.”
Edgar said those who point to the compromises made by legislative leadership as a cause of Republican losses last week are dead wrong. “Most people don’t really know who did what in the legislature. They know the final product,” he said. “If anything, I think the Republicans would be far better off to look like they are willing to reach across the aisle. I think that’s what people want. People don’t want more polarization. If the right wing still thinks that, they didn’t learn anything from this election. They haven’t been out there talking to ordinary folks.”
He added: “I don’t think you can blame Cross and Radogno. The problem is, they had terrible districts and they didn’t have the money. People give to who has power, and we didn’t have the power.”
But Edgar does see a possible bright spot in the future for the party. “The governor’s race in Illinois in two years is huge for the Republican Party. If we can win the governor’s office back, then we have a viable two party system in Illinois,” he said. “But we’ve got to make sure that we have a candidate who not only appeals to Republicans but who also appeals to independents and thoughtful Democrats because you’ve got to have those. There [are] not enough Republicans in the state to get elected dog catcher. You’ve got to go out and get people who don’t view themselves as Republican. That means that you’re going to have to make sure the candidate appeals to the center.”
Edgar warned that Republicans should not look at Quinn’s low public approval ratings and assume they have the governor’s race in the bag. “I think we have an opportunity, but it’s only an opportunity -- no guarantee. We’ve got to get our act together.”
Showing posts with label election 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election 2012. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Illinois Republicans search for reasons for election losses
By Jamey Dunn
After suffering crushing electoral defeats on Tuesday that left Democrats with veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, Illinois Republicans are left trying to sort out the causes for their big losses.
The new legislative map drawn by Democrats, along with voters turning out to support President Barack Obama in his home state, did not do Illinois Republicans any favors. But many agree that the party faces more challenges that cannot all be attributed to the new map.
“Obviously, the Democrat map performed as the Democrats intended,” said Patty Schuh, a spokeswoman for Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno. “They designed the map to ensure victory, and under the process in place in Illinois, that’s how it works.” Schuh noted that in recent decades, the party that draws the map has always picked up seats in the first race under new legislative districts. She called Tuesday’s results a continuation of that trend.
However, Schuh said that Radogno does think the party needs to take a hard look at itself and the way it does business. “The Republican Party and its elected officials need to examine everything. We really need to step back and learn lessons from this election cycle.”
Republican state Treasurer Dan Rutherford also said that the map played a role. “But that’s not the only reason. The other reason is that the Republican brand is damaged.”
Dan Proft, a talk show host with WLS radio, agreed. “We don’t have a brand. The brand doesn’t exist, and to the extent it does exist in people’s minds, it’s not a brand that a lot of people are buying.” Proft, who made his own failed bid for the Republican nomination in the 2010 governor's race, said that some of the Illinois Republicans who were defeated on Tuesday were solid candidates but “lost under the weight of the Illinois Republican Party’s brand.” He said the party has fallen into a campaigning rut that has lasted more than a decade. “Republicans have quite literally run the same campaigns in the same way with the same messaging for the better part of the last 15 years.”
Rutherford said that litmus tests on social issues are hurting the party brand. Rutherford, who was the only Senate Republican who voted in favor of Illinois’ civil unions law and describes himself as pro-life, said that Republicans should not have to conform their beliefs on social issues to be considered good members of the party. “There are good-quality Republicans that are pro-choice.” Rutherford said it is Republican fiscal policies that resonate. “Where we will earn the right to once again govern is by defining ourselves with regard to taxes, debt and spending.”
Sen. Kyle McCarter, a Lebanon Republican, said that taking the emphasis off social issues was a mistake the party made in this cycle. “We should take another lesson, and that is that running from positions on social issues didn’t work, either,” he said. “Our Republican leadership in the Senate instructed a number of our candidates to not get close to, and not take a stand on, social issues. People want to know where you stand. They don’t necessarily need to agree with you on every, issue, but they need to trust you.” McCarter said he is considering challenging Radogno for the Senate minority leader position.
Another problem facing Republicans is changing demographics. Minority groups, which tend to vote Democratic, are growing. Nationwide, Republicans struggled to connect with female voters. “Part of the generic Republican problem is that the electorate is changing,” said Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. He added, “African-American and Hispanic voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate in Illinois than they do nationally.”
Rutherford attributed his 2010 win in the race for his current office to his efforts at targeting minority voters. “I think a great part of success is just showing up, and then two things when you are there are: Don’t be a scary Republican; and two, being sensitive to the fact that they care about the same things that I care about,” he said. “They want a safe neighborhood. They want to have a job and they want reasonable taxes. And I think that’s the common denominator.
Proft said the party’s lack of support from Latino voters stems from something bigger than any single issue, such as immigration. He said it comes from a perception that the party does not care about the Latino community. “What the Latino voters seem to be saying is that: ‘Republicans don’t like me. They’re not interested in me, so I’m not interested in them.’”
Redfield said that unless there is a change of course, things could only get worse for Republicans. “If the demographic changes continue through this decade that we saw last decade, then the map is probably going to get more difficult than what we’ve seen this year.” He said it is all but impossible for the party to take back the majority in either chamber in 2014. “If they pick up 10 seats in either chamber, they are still short of the majority.”
He said the losses might also make it more difficult to raise campaign funds. “People want to give money to winners, and they want to give money to people who have access to power.”
Redfield said the party would need to invest in 2014 to protect incumbents who had closer-than-expected races this time around. “It’s just a very difficult task to figure out where they’re going to spend their money and how much defense do they need to play. And whatever defense they play means less money for playing offense.”
After suffering crushing electoral defeats on Tuesday that left Democrats with veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, Illinois Republicans are left trying to sort out the causes for their big losses.
The new legislative map drawn by Democrats, along with voters turning out to support President Barack Obama in his home state, did not do Illinois Republicans any favors. But many agree that the party faces more challenges that cannot all be attributed to the new map.
“Obviously, the Democrat map performed as the Democrats intended,” said Patty Schuh, a spokeswoman for Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno. “They designed the map to ensure victory, and under the process in place in Illinois, that’s how it works.” Schuh noted that in recent decades, the party that draws the map has always picked up seats in the first race under new legislative districts. She called Tuesday’s results a continuation of that trend.
However, Schuh said that Radogno does think the party needs to take a hard look at itself and the way it does business. “The Republican Party and its elected officials need to examine everything. We really need to step back and learn lessons from this election cycle.”
Republican state Treasurer Dan Rutherford also said that the map played a role. “But that’s not the only reason. The other reason is that the Republican brand is damaged.”
Dan Proft, a talk show host with WLS radio, agreed. “We don’t have a brand. The brand doesn’t exist, and to the extent it does exist in people’s minds, it’s not a brand that a lot of people are buying.” Proft, who made his own failed bid for the Republican nomination in the 2010 governor's race, said that some of the Illinois Republicans who were defeated on Tuesday were solid candidates but “lost under the weight of the Illinois Republican Party’s brand.” He said the party has fallen into a campaigning rut that has lasted more than a decade. “Republicans have quite literally run the same campaigns in the same way with the same messaging for the better part of the last 15 years.”
Rutherford said that litmus tests on social issues are hurting the party brand. Rutherford, who was the only Senate Republican who voted in favor of Illinois’ civil unions law and describes himself as pro-life, said that Republicans should not have to conform their beliefs on social issues to be considered good members of the party. “There are good-quality Republicans that are pro-choice.” Rutherford said it is Republican fiscal policies that resonate. “Where we will earn the right to once again govern is by defining ourselves with regard to taxes, debt and spending.”
Sen. Kyle McCarter, a Lebanon Republican, said that taking the emphasis off social issues was a mistake the party made in this cycle. “We should take another lesson, and that is that running from positions on social issues didn’t work, either,” he said. “Our Republican leadership in the Senate instructed a number of our candidates to not get close to, and not take a stand on, social issues. People want to know where you stand. They don’t necessarily need to agree with you on every, issue, but they need to trust you.” McCarter said he is considering challenging Radogno for the Senate minority leader position.
Another problem facing Republicans is changing demographics. Minority groups, which tend to vote Democratic, are growing. Nationwide, Republicans struggled to connect with female voters. “Part of the generic Republican problem is that the electorate is changing,” said Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. He added, “African-American and Hispanic voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate in Illinois than they do nationally.”
Rutherford attributed his 2010 win in the race for his current office to his efforts at targeting minority voters. “I think a great part of success is just showing up, and then two things when you are there are: Don’t be a scary Republican; and two, being sensitive to the fact that they care about the same things that I care about,” he said. “They want a safe neighborhood. They want to have a job and they want reasonable taxes. And I think that’s the common denominator.
Proft said the party’s lack of support from Latino voters stems from something bigger than any single issue, such as immigration. He said it comes from a perception that the party does not care about the Latino community. “What the Latino voters seem to be saying is that: ‘Republicans don’t like me. They’re not interested in me, so I’m not interested in them.’”
Redfield said that unless there is a change of course, things could only get worse for Republicans. “If the demographic changes continue through this decade that we saw last decade, then the map is probably going to get more difficult than what we’ve seen this year.” He said it is all but impossible for the party to take back the majority in either chamber in 2014. “If they pick up 10 seats in either chamber, they are still short of the majority.”
He said the losses might also make it more difficult to raise campaign funds. “People want to give money to winners, and they want to give money to people who have access to power.”
Redfield said the party would need to invest in 2014 to protect incumbents who had closer-than-expected races this time around. “It’s just a very difficult task to figure out where they’re going to spend their money and how much defense do they need to play. And whatever defense they play means less money for playing offense.”
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Stars align for big Illinois Democratic wins
By Jamey Dunn
Not only did Democratic incumbents facing competitive races for the General Assembly hang onto their seats yesterday, Illinois Democrats emerged from the election with veto-proof majorities in both chambers.
“Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan have to feel pretty good about their new muscle today and their new recruits,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at the Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. In the General Assembly that will be sworn in in January, Democrats will hold 71 House seats to the Republicans' 47, and 40 Senate seats, shrinking the Republican Senate caucus to 19 members. This means that if legislative Democrats unify behind a bill, not even Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto pen can put a stop to it.
When asked if the majorities weakened his power, Quinn told reporters in Chicago today, “not at all.” He noted that the Democrats are a diverse bunch who come from all areas of the state. “I think it’s important to see that the Democratic Party made great inroads in suburban communities, and I think that’s helpful for our democracy in Illinois. It’s not just one party in one part of our state.” Quinn was not a public face on any legislative campaigns, perhaps because of his abysmal public approval rating. An October poll from the Chicago Tribune pegged the governor’s approval rating at 26 percent. However, he claimed some credit today for Democratic victories. “I helped a lot of the folks who won yesterday, and I’m very happy they won. I think we have the opportunity to have a progressive majority in Illinois to make reforms that are necessary and overdue.” When asked what “progressive reforms” he would like to see happen, Quinn said his focus is on pension reform, economic growth and jobs. He would not give a direct answer to questions about the possibility of the new majorities giving a boost to issues such as same-sex marriage or gambling expansions. When Democrat Sam Yingling, who beat Republican Rep. Sandy Cole in the 62nd Illinois House, is seated in January, he will be one of four openly gay House members.
Schaumburg Democratic Rep. Michelle Mussman, Northbrook Democratic Rep. Elaine Nekrtiz, Park Ridge Democratic Sen. Dan Kotowski, Peoria Democratic Sen. David Koehler, Rushville Democratic Sen. John Sullivan, Alton Democratic Sen. William Haine and East Moline Democratic Sen. Mike Jacobs all faced aggressive Republican challenges, and all will return in the next General Assembly.
Even ousted former Rep. Derrick Smith will be returning to the Statehouse. Smith was booted after being arrested on charges of taking a bribe just a week before the primary. However, he won the Democratic nomination for the 10th Illinois House District. On Tuesday, Smith handily beat challenger Unity Party candidate Lance Tyson — despite Tyson’s backing from several prominent members of the Democratic Party, including Quinn.
Democrats also rolled back the Republican wave that gave the GOP control of the state’s congressional delegation in 2010. Republicans picked up five seats that year, but Democrats were able to capture five of the six seats that were in play this time around. Democrats picked up victories in the Chicago suburbs, where Tammy Duckworth beat Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh in the 8th Congressional District, Brad Schneider defeated U.S. Rep. Robert Dold in the 10th and former Democratic Bill Foster beat current U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert, a Republican, in the 11th Congressional District. Democrat Cheri Bustos won the 17th Congressional District over Republican U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling. In the southeastern part of the state, Democrat Bill Enyart prevailed over Republican Jason Plummer in the 12th Congressional District.
Republicans will likely retain the seat in the 13th Congressional District, currently held by Republican U.S. Rep. Timothy Johnson, who is retiring at the end of his current term. While Democrat David Gill has yet to concede to Republican Rodney Davis, unofficial results show that Davis is up by more than 1,200 votes.
Many are attributing the Democrats' big wins in Illinois to their drawing of the new legislative map. Because they hold both chambers of the General Assembly and the governor’s office, Democrats were able to draw new state legislative and congressional districts without input from Republicans. “The map has got a lot to do with it, I think, undoubtedly,” said Christopher Mooney, a political science professor at the University of Illinois Springfield. Mooney added that enthusiasm for President Barack Obama in his home state might have brought more Democrats out to the polls. Jackson agreed. “To me, the huge difference between [20]10 and [20]12 is the size and shape of the electorate.” He said the backlash over the Affordable Care Act and the rise of the Tea Party brought out populations that are more typically Republican, such as white and older voters in 2010. “It was kind of a totally different snapshot demographically.” He said Tuesday’s race brought out an electorate more like the one that sent Obama to the White House in 2008.
But Mooney said that not all the success could be attributed solely to the map or Obama’s coattails. He noted that Democrats picked up some state legislative seats that were not explicitly drawn as Democratic districts. “If a candidate just worked hard, and if you’ve got a lot of time to walk and knock on a lot of doors, that can have an impact in an open seat race.”
Still, many veteran Statehouse watchers did not expect the sweeping nature of the Democratic victories in Illinois. “I’m surprised that almost all of the contested races tilted ultimately to the Democrats. You can expect that in Chicago, but I did not [expect it] across downstate,” Jackson said.
“It’s just [that] all the stars were in alignment for them, and everything broke their way,” Mooney said of Illinois Democrats. “Sometimes you’re the windshield, and sometimes you’re the bug. And they were certainty the windshield this time around.”
Not only did Democratic incumbents facing competitive races for the General Assembly hang onto their seats yesterday, Illinois Democrats emerged from the election with veto-proof majorities in both chambers.
“Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan have to feel pretty good about their new muscle today and their new recruits,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at the Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. In the General Assembly that will be sworn in in January, Democrats will hold 71 House seats to the Republicans' 47, and 40 Senate seats, shrinking the Republican Senate caucus to 19 members. This means that if legislative Democrats unify behind a bill, not even Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto pen can put a stop to it.
When asked if the majorities weakened his power, Quinn told reporters in Chicago today, “not at all.” He noted that the Democrats are a diverse bunch who come from all areas of the state. “I think it’s important to see that the Democratic Party made great inroads in suburban communities, and I think that’s helpful for our democracy in Illinois. It’s not just one party in one part of our state.” Quinn was not a public face on any legislative campaigns, perhaps because of his abysmal public approval rating. An October poll from the Chicago Tribune pegged the governor’s approval rating at 26 percent. However, he claimed some credit today for Democratic victories. “I helped a lot of the folks who won yesterday, and I’m very happy they won. I think we have the opportunity to have a progressive majority in Illinois to make reforms that are necessary and overdue.” When asked what “progressive reforms” he would like to see happen, Quinn said his focus is on pension reform, economic growth and jobs. He would not give a direct answer to questions about the possibility of the new majorities giving a boost to issues such as same-sex marriage or gambling expansions. When Democrat Sam Yingling, who beat Republican Rep. Sandy Cole in the 62nd Illinois House, is seated in January, he will be one of four openly gay House members.
Schaumburg Democratic Rep. Michelle Mussman, Northbrook Democratic Rep. Elaine Nekrtiz, Park Ridge Democratic Sen. Dan Kotowski, Peoria Democratic Sen. David Koehler, Rushville Democratic Sen. John Sullivan, Alton Democratic Sen. William Haine and East Moline Democratic Sen. Mike Jacobs all faced aggressive Republican challenges, and all will return in the next General Assembly.
Even ousted former Rep. Derrick Smith will be returning to the Statehouse. Smith was booted after being arrested on charges of taking a bribe just a week before the primary. However, he won the Democratic nomination for the 10th Illinois House District. On Tuesday, Smith handily beat challenger Unity Party candidate Lance Tyson — despite Tyson’s backing from several prominent members of the Democratic Party, including Quinn.
Democrats also rolled back the Republican wave that gave the GOP control of the state’s congressional delegation in 2010. Republicans picked up five seats that year, but Democrats were able to capture five of the six seats that were in play this time around. Democrats picked up victories in the Chicago suburbs, where Tammy Duckworth beat Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh in the 8th Congressional District, Brad Schneider defeated U.S. Rep. Robert Dold in the 10th and former Democratic Bill Foster beat current U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert, a Republican, in the 11th Congressional District. Democrat Cheri Bustos won the 17th Congressional District over Republican U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling. In the southeastern part of the state, Democrat Bill Enyart prevailed over Republican Jason Plummer in the 12th Congressional District.
Republicans will likely retain the seat in the 13th Congressional District, currently held by Republican U.S. Rep. Timothy Johnson, who is retiring at the end of his current term. While Democrat David Gill has yet to concede to Republican Rodney Davis, unofficial results show that Davis is up by more than 1,200 votes.
Many are attributing the Democrats' big wins in Illinois to their drawing of the new legislative map. Because they hold both chambers of the General Assembly and the governor’s office, Democrats were able to draw new state legislative and congressional districts without input from Republicans. “The map has got a lot to do with it, I think, undoubtedly,” said Christopher Mooney, a political science professor at the University of Illinois Springfield. Mooney added that enthusiasm for President Barack Obama in his home state might have brought more Democrats out to the polls. Jackson agreed. “To me, the huge difference between [20]10 and [20]12 is the size and shape of the electorate.” He said the backlash over the Affordable Care Act and the rise of the Tea Party brought out populations that are more typically Republican, such as white and older voters in 2010. “It was kind of a totally different snapshot demographically.” He said Tuesday’s race brought out an electorate more like the one that sent Obama to the White House in 2008.
But Mooney said that not all the success could be attributed solely to the map or Obama’s coattails. He noted that Democrats picked up some state legislative seats that were not explicitly drawn as Democratic districts. “If a candidate just worked hard, and if you’ve got a lot of time to walk and knock on a lot of doors, that can have an impact in an open seat race.”
Still, many veteran Statehouse watchers did not expect the sweeping nature of the Democratic victories in Illinois. “I’m surprised that almost all of the contested races tilted ultimately to the Democrats. You can expect that in Chicago, but I did not [expect it] across downstate,” Jackson said.
“It’s just [that] all the stars were in alignment for them, and everything broke their way,” Mooney said of Illinois Democrats. “Sometimes you’re the windshield, and sometimes you’re the bug. And they were certainty the windshield this time around.”
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Election night
I will not be posting on the blog tonight because I am hosting a live webcast called The Count 2012. Tune in for returns and analysis from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. The show will focus on state legislative and Illinois congressional races.
If you are looking for print and/or localized coverage, here are some sources:
Lee Enterprises
Chicago Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
The State Journal-Register
WUIS will have local coverage, as well as national NPR coverage.
Check back here tomorrow for analysis of the results.
If you are looking for print and/or localized coverage, here are some sources:
Lee Enterprises
Chicago Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
The State Journal-Register
WUIS will have local coverage, as well as national NPR coverage.
Check back here tomorrow for analysis of the results.
Congressional races to watch
By Jamey Dunn
With several congressional seats in play, big money has been thrown into Illinois races and big-name politicians are making pitches for candidates as part of the national battle over the U.S. House.
U.S. House Races
8th District
U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, a Republican from McHenry, may lose his seat to Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth from Hoffman Estates. The race has been close, but Duckworth, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs, has pulled ahead in the polls in recent weeks.
10th District
U.S. Rep. Robert Dold, a Republican from Kenilworth, is running for reelection in a highly Democratic district created under the recent remap. U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, who is recovering from a recent stroke, has come out in support of Dold and appeared in a campaign ad. Dold faces Democratic candidate Brad Schneider, a businessman from Deerfield. Kirk was able to hold his U.S. House seat in a similar district for years before he ran for U.S. Senate.
11th District
Kirk also appeared in an online video to throw his support behind Republican U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert of Hinsdale. Former President Bill Clinton voiced a robocall in support of Democratic challenger Bill Foster, a scientist from Naperville. Foster served previously in the U.S. House after being elected in 2008. He lost his seat in the Republican wave of 2010.
12th District
Bill Enyart, a Democrat from Belleville, if facing off against former Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, Jason Plummer from Fairview Heights. Plummer, a naval officer who works for his family’s lumber and hardware store chain, had an early lead in the polls. But according to some recent polling, Enyart, former head of the Illinois National Guard, appears to have bounced back. Those who have been keeping tabs on this race expect it to be close. “When it’s very close, it all comes down to which side does a better job on turning out their troops, and I’m not clear what the prospects there are,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. Both Kirk and Clinton have recorded robocalls to support their partys' candidates in the race. Democratic U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello, who is retiring this year, held his seat in this area for more than 24 years.
13th District
After U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson announced his plans to retire, Republicans chose Rodney Davis, a former staffer for U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, to run in the district. David Gill, a doctor from Bloomington, won out in the Democratic primary. John Hartman, an Edwardsville resident and chief financial officer of a genetic research company, is running as an independent. This has been a close race, but some observers are predicting a Davis win. “Davis should win because I think he is a much better fit for the [demographics of the] district,” said Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield.
17th District
U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling of Colona won his seat with backing from the Tea Party in 2010. Democratic challenger Cheri Bustos of East Moline is a former news reporter and East Moline City Council member. This is another close race, with Schilling leading in recent polls.
Jackson predicts that Illinois Democrats will make some gains in Congress, but he predicts that those victories will not turn be enough to place the party back in control of the U.S. House. “I think Democrats are likely to pick up about three of the contested five [seats]. There are five for sure, maybe six, [seats in play],” he said. “But that won’t do it to take back the House.”’
Redfield agreed. He said that Democratic map makers in Illinois may have helped the party have a shot at more congressional seats, but many other states had Republicans in power for redistricting. “There are states where the Democrats are at as much of a disadvantage as the Republicans are here, in terms of who drew the map.” Jackson also cautioned against seeing these races as just about the new map. He points to downstate races, such as the 12th District and the 13th District, where Democrats are putting up fights but in no way have a lock on the seats. “The ability to draw that map, though, is still just a marginal benefit,” he said. “It still didn’t make it a sure win for the Democrats.”
President Barack Obama is obviously favored to win his Democratic-leaning home state over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Redfield and Jackson both said it is unlikely that either candidate will have powerful enough coattails to decide down-ticket races. However, Jackson said that the presidential race has set the tone and issues for negative ads in congressional and state legislative races. “Everybody gets blasted by being associated with Obama or being associated with Romney,” he said. “It’s just a constant litany of the national ads adapted to the local races.”
With several congressional seats in play, big money has been thrown into Illinois races and big-name politicians are making pitches for candidates as part of the national battle over the U.S. House.
U.S. House Races
8th District
U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, a Republican from McHenry, may lose his seat to Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth from Hoffman Estates. The race has been close, but Duckworth, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs, has pulled ahead in the polls in recent weeks.
10th District
U.S. Rep. Robert Dold, a Republican from Kenilworth, is running for reelection in a highly Democratic district created under the recent remap. U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, who is recovering from a recent stroke, has come out in support of Dold and appeared in a campaign ad. Dold faces Democratic candidate Brad Schneider, a businessman from Deerfield. Kirk was able to hold his U.S. House seat in a similar district for years before he ran for U.S. Senate.
11th District
Kirk also appeared in an online video to throw his support behind Republican U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert of Hinsdale. Former President Bill Clinton voiced a robocall in support of Democratic challenger Bill Foster, a scientist from Naperville. Foster served previously in the U.S. House after being elected in 2008. He lost his seat in the Republican wave of 2010.
12th District
Bill Enyart, a Democrat from Belleville, if facing off against former Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, Jason Plummer from Fairview Heights. Plummer, a naval officer who works for his family’s lumber and hardware store chain, had an early lead in the polls. But according to some recent polling, Enyart, former head of the Illinois National Guard, appears to have bounced back. Those who have been keeping tabs on this race expect it to be close. “When it’s very close, it all comes down to which side does a better job on turning out their troops, and I’m not clear what the prospects there are,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. Both Kirk and Clinton have recorded robocalls to support their partys' candidates in the race. Democratic U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello, who is retiring this year, held his seat in this area for more than 24 years.
13th District
After U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson announced his plans to retire, Republicans chose Rodney Davis, a former staffer for U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, to run in the district. David Gill, a doctor from Bloomington, won out in the Democratic primary. John Hartman, an Edwardsville resident and chief financial officer of a genetic research company, is running as an independent. This has been a close race, but some observers are predicting a Davis win. “Davis should win because I think he is a much better fit for the [demographics of the] district,” said Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield.
17th District
U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling of Colona won his seat with backing from the Tea Party in 2010. Democratic challenger Cheri Bustos of East Moline is a former news reporter and East Moline City Council member. This is another close race, with Schilling leading in recent polls.
Jackson predicts that Illinois Democrats will make some gains in Congress, but he predicts that those victories will not turn be enough to place the party back in control of the U.S. House. “I think Democrats are likely to pick up about three of the contested five [seats]. There are five for sure, maybe six, [seats in play],” he said. “But that won’t do it to take back the House.”’
Redfield agreed. He said that Democratic map makers in Illinois may have helped the party have a shot at more congressional seats, but many other states had Republicans in power for redistricting. “There are states where the Democrats are at as much of a disadvantage as the Republicans are here, in terms of who drew the map.” Jackson also cautioned against seeing these races as just about the new map. He points to downstate races, such as the 12th District and the 13th District, where Democrats are putting up fights but in no way have a lock on the seats. “The ability to draw that map, though, is still just a marginal benefit,” he said. “It still didn’t make it a sure win for the Democrats.”
President Barack Obama is obviously favored to win his Democratic-leaning home state over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Redfield and Jackson both said it is unlikely that either candidate will have powerful enough coattails to decide down-ticket races. However, Jackson said that the presidential race has set the tone and issues for negative ads in congressional and state legislative races. “Everybody gets blasted by being associated with Obama or being associated with Romney,” he said. “It’s just a constant litany of the national ads adapted to the local races.”
Monday, November 05, 2012
State legislative races to watch
By Jamey Dunn
Illinois Senate Races
District 36
The race between Sen. Mike Jacobs, a Democrat from East Moline, and Moline Republican Bill Albracht, a retired Secret Service agent, has become one of the most closely watched battles in the General Assembly and one that many say is too close to call. Jacobs has trailed in some recent polls, but Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield, said he is not discounting the power of incumbency, or the fact that Jacobs is the son of a popular retired legislator, former Sen. Denny Jacobs. “It’s hard to know whether people will come home in terms of the name recognition and all of that with him,” Redfield said.
59th District
Republican Mark Minor, a pastor from Ewing, is challenging Sen. Gary Forby, a Benton Democrat. Forby has been pushing back against Gov. Pat Quinn’s proposed closure of corrections facilities in his area. Most incumbent Democrats seem to be avoiding the unpopular governor from their party. However, Forby appears to be one of the only Democrats out there using the governor’s low favorability rating as a plus for his own campaign. “Quinn is a minus for everybody except Forby. He seems to be winning by running against the Democratic governor,” Redfield said.
46th District
Peoria Democratic Sen. David Koehler and Republican Pat Sullivan, a Peoria businessman, have spent almost $1.7 million total in their race. “I think Koehler is all right in the 46th [District], but [Republicans] certainly have spent money there,” Redfield said.
48th District
The most expensive Senate race is also one of the most closely watched. Democrat Andy Manar from Bunker Hill is chairman of the Macoupin County Board and former chief of staff for Senate President John Cullerton. He is running against Decatur Mayor Mike McElroy, a Republican. The two have spent nearly $2.5 million, and the race could break the all-time spending record for a state Senate contest.
28th District
Park Ridge Democratic Sen. Dan Kotowski has faced a tough race against Republican Jim O’Donnell, a Park Ridge businessman.
Illinois House
96th District
Democrats had hoped to carve out a downstate House seat with this district, which includes parts of Springfield and Decatur, and it seems that they may succeed with candidate Sue Scherer, a teacher from Decatur. Scherer has been somewhat cagey with the media and has come under fire for her connections to House Speaker Michael Madigan. Despite the criticisms, she appears to be leading her opponent, Republican Dennis Shackleford, a Rochester businessman.
10th District
Former Rep. Derrick Smith, who was ousted from the House after being arrested on bribery charges, may be returning to that chamber in January. Smith was arrested a week before the primary election but still won the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. Democratic leaders had hopped he would step aside. After he refused, many backed third-party candidate Lance Tyson. But recent polling shows the Chicago lawyer trailing Smith.
52nd District
The most expensive House race is a face off between Barrington Hills independent Dee Beaubien, the widow of the late Rep. Mark Beaubien, and Republican David McSweeney, a Barrington Hills businessman. Rep. Mark Beaubien, who died in June 2011, was a Republican known for crossing the aisle. Dee Beaubien said she ran because she was concerned about what she saw as the party’s shift to the extreme right. She has taken campaign funding from Democrats but has not said which party she would caucus with if elected.
56th District
Northbrook Democratic Rep. Elaine Nekrtiz, who has been a rising star among House Democrats, is facing a heated challenge from Johnathan Greenberg, a rabbi and advocate from Northbrook. Nekrtiz has backed budget cuts and spearheaded recent efforts at pension reforms. She is in a tight race against the self-described moderate Greenberg, who got his start in politics as Democrat.
Redfield said he does not expect Republicans to take the majority in either chamber. He said many Democratic incumbents who were facing tight races have pulled ahead in recent weeks. However, he said that state legislative races are difficult to gauge because unlike national races or races for Congress, almost all of the state-level polling is partisan and conducted by the candidates’ campaigns. “The best polling is the campaigns, but sometimes campaigns lie to themselves.”
Constitutional amendment
Illinoisans will also decide whether the state should change its Constitution to make it more difficult to pass increases in pension benefits for state workers. The constitutional amendment that will appear before voters would require a three-fifths vote by the General Assembly to enhance public employee pension benefits. The amendment has been drawing fire lately and has found few supporters outside of the legislature. For a breakdown on what the amendment does and the arguments for and against it, see the current Illinois Issues.
A legal challenge also has been launched that would have a judge set aside the results of the vote on the proposed amendment. The plaintiffs argue that the wording on the ballot is unclear and could confuse voters. The instructions include language about a constitutional convention, which lawmakers say they did not intend to appear on the ballot unless voters have the option to call a convention. Voters do not have that option this year. For more on the lawsuit and instruction language, see the Illinois Issues blog.
Illinois Senate Races
District 36
The race between Sen. Mike Jacobs, a Democrat from East Moline, and Moline Republican Bill Albracht, a retired Secret Service agent, has become one of the most closely watched battles in the General Assembly and one that many say is too close to call. Jacobs has trailed in some recent polls, but Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield, said he is not discounting the power of incumbency, or the fact that Jacobs is the son of a popular retired legislator, former Sen. Denny Jacobs. “It’s hard to know whether people will come home in terms of the name recognition and all of that with him,” Redfield said.
59th District
Republican Mark Minor, a pastor from Ewing, is challenging Sen. Gary Forby, a Benton Democrat. Forby has been pushing back against Gov. Pat Quinn’s proposed closure of corrections facilities in his area. Most incumbent Democrats seem to be avoiding the unpopular governor from their party. However, Forby appears to be one of the only Democrats out there using the governor’s low favorability rating as a plus for his own campaign. “Quinn is a minus for everybody except Forby. He seems to be winning by running against the Democratic governor,” Redfield said.
46th District
Peoria Democratic Sen. David Koehler and Republican Pat Sullivan, a Peoria businessman, have spent almost $1.7 million total in their race. “I think Koehler is all right in the 46th [District], but [Republicans] certainly have spent money there,” Redfield said.
48th District
The most expensive Senate race is also one of the most closely watched. Democrat Andy Manar from Bunker Hill is chairman of the Macoupin County Board and former chief of staff for Senate President John Cullerton. He is running against Decatur Mayor Mike McElroy, a Republican. The two have spent nearly $2.5 million, and the race could break the all-time spending record for a state Senate contest.
28th District
Park Ridge Democratic Sen. Dan Kotowski has faced a tough race against Republican Jim O’Donnell, a Park Ridge businessman.
Illinois House
96th District
Democrats had hoped to carve out a downstate House seat with this district, which includes parts of Springfield and Decatur, and it seems that they may succeed with candidate Sue Scherer, a teacher from Decatur. Scherer has been somewhat cagey with the media and has come under fire for her connections to House Speaker Michael Madigan. Despite the criticisms, she appears to be leading her opponent, Republican Dennis Shackleford, a Rochester businessman.
10th District
Former Rep. Derrick Smith, who was ousted from the House after being arrested on bribery charges, may be returning to that chamber in January. Smith was arrested a week before the primary election but still won the Democratic nomination by a wide margin. Democratic leaders had hopped he would step aside. After he refused, many backed third-party candidate Lance Tyson. But recent polling shows the Chicago lawyer trailing Smith.
52nd District
The most expensive House race is a face off between Barrington Hills independent Dee Beaubien, the widow of the late Rep. Mark Beaubien, and Republican David McSweeney, a Barrington Hills businessman. Rep. Mark Beaubien, who died in June 2011, was a Republican known for crossing the aisle. Dee Beaubien said she ran because she was concerned about what she saw as the party’s shift to the extreme right. She has taken campaign funding from Democrats but has not said which party she would caucus with if elected.
56th District
Northbrook Democratic Rep. Elaine Nekrtiz, who has been a rising star among House Democrats, is facing a heated challenge from Johnathan Greenberg, a rabbi and advocate from Northbrook. Nekrtiz has backed budget cuts and spearheaded recent efforts at pension reforms. She is in a tight race against the self-described moderate Greenberg, who got his start in politics as Democrat.
Redfield said he does not expect Republicans to take the majority in either chamber. He said many Democratic incumbents who were facing tight races have pulled ahead in recent weeks. However, he said that state legislative races are difficult to gauge because unlike national races or races for Congress, almost all of the state-level polling is partisan and conducted by the candidates’ campaigns. “The best polling is the campaigns, but sometimes campaigns lie to themselves.”
Constitutional amendment
Illinoisans will also decide whether the state should change its Constitution to make it more difficult to pass increases in pension benefits for state workers. The constitutional amendment that will appear before voters would require a three-fifths vote by the General Assembly to enhance public employee pension benefits. The amendment has been drawing fire lately and has found few supporters outside of the legislature. For a breakdown on what the amendment does and the arguments for and against it, see the current Illinois Issues.
A legal challenge also has been launched that would have a judge set aside the results of the vote on the proposed amendment. The plaintiffs argue that the wording on the ballot is unclear and could confuse voters. The instructions include language about a constitutional convention, which lawmakers say they did not intend to appear on the ballot unless voters have the option to call a convention. Voters do not have that option this year. For more on the lawsuit and instruction language, see the Illinois Issues blog.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
New legislative map contributes to high-dollar races
By Jamey Dunn
At least one race for the Illinois General Assembly is on target to break an all-time spending record, and another race has seen contribution limits tossed thanks to a new law.
More than $2 million has been spent in the state Senate race between Democrat Andy Manar and Republican Mike McElroy. The spending total in the 48th District will likely break the 2010 record of more than $2.7 million spent on a Senate race. That record was set when Republican Sam McCann unseated Democratic incumbent Deanna Demuzio. McCann is running unopposed in the general election this year.
David Morrison, deputy director of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, said that part of the reason the race is so expensive is the district itself. It includes parts of Springfield and Decatur and stretches diagonally down to the southwest portion of the state, stopping short of the Metro East area. The size of the district leaves candidates with the need to buy airtime for ads in several areas. “You’ve got to buy time at both ends,” he said.
Morrison said the same factor could be driving fundraising in what will likely prove to be the most expensive appellate court race this year. Of the $1.45 million raised by candidates for judge across the state, more than a third was raised in the race for an opening on the appellate bench in Illinois’ Fifth Judicial District. Democrat Judy Cates has raised almost $410,000, while her Republican opponent, Stephen McGlynn, raised almost $140,000. “It’s the far southernmost part of the state; it’s the least populated of the five judicial districts,” Morrison said. “If you’re going to go on TV you’re talking St. Louis, Paducah, Springfield, Decatur a bunch of different markets to cover the whole area.” He added, “In most of those markets, you’re paying for viewers who can’t vote for you” because only a small potion of the viewership in each market lives within the district.
A new Illinois law that tosses out campaign contribution limits if an outside group spends more than $100,000 in a state legislative race has been triggered in one instance so far this general election. Personal PAC, a pro-choice political action committee, has spent more than $150,000 opposing Republican candidate Joe Neal in the 31st Illinois Senate District. Neal and his opponent, Democrat Melinda Bush, do not have to abide my donation caps when accepting money form supporters. This is the first time the provision has gone into practice since Gov. Pat Quinn signed it into law in July.
The new law is based on a stipulation in previous campaign finance reforms that allows the limits to be tossed when candidates put more than $100,000 of their own money into their own campaigns. In the 52nd Illinois House District, both independent Dee Beaubien and Republican David McSweeney have injected more than $100,000 of their private funds into their campaigns. The total spending for their race tops $1.5 million. Six competitive Illinois House races have surpassed the $1 million mark for total spending, and at least one more is edging close to becoming a $1 million race.
However, Kent Redfield, an emeritus professor at the University of Illinois Springfield and director of the Sunshine Project, a nonprofit campaign contribution database connected to the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, said it is unlikely that the $2 million all-time House spending record will be broken. That record was set in 2010 by Democrat Jay Hoffman and Republican Dwight Kay. Redfield said that Hoffman, an incumbent who lost the race, drove up the spending by infusing his campaign with large sums of his own money. Redfield also says the new legislative maps play a role in the high dollar races. He said that Democrats, who drew the map, are playing offense in the suburbs and spending while trying to pick up more seats. However, they were unable to draw truly safe districts for many downstate incumbents because downstate Illinois has begun to lean more to Republicans. So, those incumbents are spending big bucks to try to hang onto their jobs, while Republicans are willing to spend more on challenges that may give them a shot at unseating Democrats.
So far, the five most expensive Senate races after the 48th District involve incumbent Democrats fighting for their political lives. Redfield says this trend too is driven by geography and demographics. Southern Illinois has seen a drop in population, so districts must be larger to contain enough residents. This means that the Democratic strongholds that do exist downstate, which are often population centers, can become diluted in large districts that also contain rural voters, who are more typically Republican. “The Democrats were able to protect House districts downstate better than they were able to protect the Senate districts just because of how large the Senate districts have to be.” But Redfield said that despite the tough races, it is unlikely that Democrats would lose their majority control in either chamber. “I would still be surprised if the Democrats were in trouble overall in either the House or the Senate.”
While this is the first election under an Illinois Supreme Court ruling that allows political action committees (PACs) to raise and spend unlimited funds on their own, Redfield said he is uncertain on whether the change has brought an influx of new political money into this campaign season. “I don’t know how much of it is new money versus old money and how much of it is [candidates and parties] getting around limits [by filtering money through PACs].” He said it will take some time to unravel where money came from, especially money from national organizations and non-profit groups with certain tax designations that do not have to specifically disclose each donation. Redfield notes that the current totals aren’t the whole story. “A lot of the money hasn’t been spent, but some of it hasn’t been reported. They may spend some more at the tail end here.”
Morrison said that everyone watching how campaigns are funded is adjusting to the new reality of the so-called super PACs and the rise of unlimited spending that is done independently of campaigns. “I think we’re still at the early stage in the learning curve of independent expenditures. It’s a new way for money to flow. Reporters and the public alike are not really sure how to keep track of it.”
The ICPR launched a new online tool this week to track spending in the most expensive state races. The site is based on numbers from the Illinois State Board of Elections website, which is updated in real time when candidates electronically file their disclosures. The ICPR site takes about an hour to update after candidates file. However, it is a simple way to compare all the top-spending races at a glance, including independent spending by outside groups.
At least one race for the Illinois General Assembly is on target to break an all-time spending record, and another race has seen contribution limits tossed thanks to a new law.
More than $2 million has been spent in the state Senate race between Democrat Andy Manar and Republican Mike McElroy. The spending total in the 48th District will likely break the 2010 record of more than $2.7 million spent on a Senate race. That record was set when Republican Sam McCann unseated Democratic incumbent Deanna Demuzio. McCann is running unopposed in the general election this year.
David Morrison, deputy director of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, said that part of the reason the race is so expensive is the district itself. It includes parts of Springfield and Decatur and stretches diagonally down to the southwest portion of the state, stopping short of the Metro East area. The size of the district leaves candidates with the need to buy airtime for ads in several areas. “You’ve got to buy time at both ends,” he said.
Morrison said the same factor could be driving fundraising in what will likely prove to be the most expensive appellate court race this year. Of the $1.45 million raised by candidates for judge across the state, more than a third was raised in the race for an opening on the appellate bench in Illinois’ Fifth Judicial District. Democrat Judy Cates has raised almost $410,000, while her Republican opponent, Stephen McGlynn, raised almost $140,000. “It’s the far southernmost part of the state; it’s the least populated of the five judicial districts,” Morrison said. “If you’re going to go on TV you’re talking St. Louis, Paducah, Springfield, Decatur a bunch of different markets to cover the whole area.” He added, “In most of those markets, you’re paying for viewers who can’t vote for you” because only a small potion of the viewership in each market lives within the district.
A new Illinois law that tosses out campaign contribution limits if an outside group spends more than $100,000 in a state legislative race has been triggered in one instance so far this general election. Personal PAC, a pro-choice political action committee, has spent more than $150,000 opposing Republican candidate Joe Neal in the 31st Illinois Senate District. Neal and his opponent, Democrat Melinda Bush, do not have to abide my donation caps when accepting money form supporters. This is the first time the provision has gone into practice since Gov. Pat Quinn signed it into law in July.
The new law is based on a stipulation in previous campaign finance reforms that allows the limits to be tossed when candidates put more than $100,000 of their own money into their own campaigns. In the 52nd Illinois House District, both independent Dee Beaubien and Republican David McSweeney have injected more than $100,000 of their private funds into their campaigns. The total spending for their race tops $1.5 million. Six competitive Illinois House races have surpassed the $1 million mark for total spending, and at least one more is edging close to becoming a $1 million race.
However, Kent Redfield, an emeritus professor at the University of Illinois Springfield and director of the Sunshine Project, a nonprofit campaign contribution database connected to the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, said it is unlikely that the $2 million all-time House spending record will be broken. That record was set in 2010 by Democrat Jay Hoffman and Republican Dwight Kay. Redfield said that Hoffman, an incumbent who lost the race, drove up the spending by infusing his campaign with large sums of his own money. Redfield also says the new legislative maps play a role in the high dollar races. He said that Democrats, who drew the map, are playing offense in the suburbs and spending while trying to pick up more seats. However, they were unable to draw truly safe districts for many downstate incumbents because downstate Illinois has begun to lean more to Republicans. So, those incumbents are spending big bucks to try to hang onto their jobs, while Republicans are willing to spend more on challenges that may give them a shot at unseating Democrats.
So far, the five most expensive Senate races after the 48th District involve incumbent Democrats fighting for their political lives. Redfield says this trend too is driven by geography and demographics. Southern Illinois has seen a drop in population, so districts must be larger to contain enough residents. This means that the Democratic strongholds that do exist downstate, which are often population centers, can become diluted in large districts that also contain rural voters, who are more typically Republican. “The Democrats were able to protect House districts downstate better than they were able to protect the Senate districts just because of how large the Senate districts have to be.” But Redfield said that despite the tough races, it is unlikely that Democrats would lose their majority control in either chamber. “I would still be surprised if the Democrats were in trouble overall in either the House or the Senate.”
While this is the first election under an Illinois Supreme Court ruling that allows political action committees (PACs) to raise and spend unlimited funds on their own, Redfield said he is uncertain on whether the change has brought an influx of new political money into this campaign season. “I don’t know how much of it is new money versus old money and how much of it is [candidates and parties] getting around limits [by filtering money through PACs].” He said it will take some time to unravel where money came from, especially money from national organizations and non-profit groups with certain tax designations that do not have to specifically disclose each donation. Redfield notes that the current totals aren’t the whole story. “A lot of the money hasn’t been spent, but some of it hasn’t been reported. They may spend some more at the tail end here.”
Morrison said that everyone watching how campaigns are funded is adjusting to the new reality of the so-called super PACs and the rise of unlimited spending that is done independently of campaigns. “I think we’re still at the early stage in the learning curve of independent expenditures. It’s a new way for money to flow. Reporters and the public alike are not really sure how to keep track of it.”
The ICPR launched a new online tool this week to track spending in the most expensive state races. The site is based on numbers from the Illinois State Board of Elections website, which is updated in real time when candidates electronically file their disclosures. The ICPR site takes about an hour to update after candidates file. However, it is a simple way to compare all the top-spending races at a glance, including independent spending by outside groups.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Early voting in Illinois starts today
President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney will likely try to sway the electorate in their final televised debate this evening, but some Illinois voters will have already cast their votes hours before the two duke it out on the national stage.
Registered voters can begin casting their ballots for the general election today at early voting locations across the state. Voters do not have to provide a reason for casting their vote before the November 6 general election. Early voting centers must be open on weekdays from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. or 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Most centers also offer weekend hours. Early voting will be available until November 3. To locate an early voting center in your area and check their hours, see the State Board of Elections’ website.
According to the State Board of Elections, almost 1 million voters—or 16 percent of Illinois voters who participated in the 2008 presidential election—cast their votes early in 2008. “Voting early by personal appearance, without having to give a reason, has proven to be a popular option for Illinois voters,” Rupert Borgsmiller, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said in a written statement. “Voters appreciate the convenience of going to the polls on their own schedule.”
Voters who are away from home can cast an absentee ballot in person or by mail until November 5. The deadline to register for the November general election has passed. However, voters who have not yet registered can participate in grace period voting until November 3. For more information about grace period voting, including locations in your area where you can participate, contact your local election authority.
Registered voters can begin casting their ballots for the general election today at early voting locations across the state. Voters do not have to provide a reason for casting their vote before the November 6 general election. Early voting centers must be open on weekdays from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. or 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Most centers also offer weekend hours. Early voting will be available until November 3. To locate an early voting center in your area and check their hours, see the State Board of Elections’ website.
According to the State Board of Elections, almost 1 million voters—or 16 percent of Illinois voters who participated in the 2008 presidential election—cast their votes early in 2008. “Voting early by personal appearance, without having to give a reason, has proven to be a popular option for Illinois voters,” Rupert Borgsmiller, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said in a written statement. “Voters appreciate the convenience of going to the polls on their own schedule.”
Voters who are away from home can cast an absentee ballot in person or by mail until November 5. The deadline to register for the November general election has passed. However, voters who have not yet registered can participate in grace period voting until November 3. For more information about grace period voting, including locations in your area where you can participate, contact your local election authority.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Presidential coattails less of a factor in state legislative races
By Jamey Dunn
While the presidential election has captured the nation’s attention, Illinois political scientists say that the shifting regional demographics and the state’s new electoral maps will have a much larger impact on down-ticket legislative races in Illinois than the candidates at the top of the ballot.
“[President Barack] Obama will carry Illinois comfortably,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at the Southern Illinois University. The president won the state with about 62 percent of the vote in 2008. Recent polling suggests that his popularity in Illinois has slipped since but still shows him leading Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a strong margin.
Even many Illinois Republicans admit that it is likely Obama will win his home state in the upcoming general election. "Let's face it: If Mitt Romney would win Illinois, he'd win by a biblical landslide nationwide. But I think Mitt Romney is going to run much better in Illinois than John McCain ran because I don't think Barack Obama is going to do that well in Illinois," former Gov. Jim Edgar told reporters at the Republican National Convention. Edgar said unpopular Democratic leaders such as Obama and Gov. Pat Quinn do not seem to be assets for Illinois Democrats running for state legislative seats.
“Where Obama’s numbers are not good downstate, and where Quinn’s numbers are not good, the Democrats are going to try to make the elections as local as possible,” said Kent Redfield, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. “You’re going to see Democrats downstate running away from the national ticket, away from Gov. Quinn.”
In 2008, Obama carried 30 counties that previous Democratic presidential candidates John Kerry and Al Gore lost. Jackson — who looked at the 2008 results in his 2009 paper entitled, "The Anatomy of President Barack Obama’s General Election Victory in Illinois" — said it is likely that Obama will lose some of that ground this time around. He said an Obama win would likely look more like Quinn’s 2010 gubernatorial victory, with the president taking Democratic strongholds, such as Cook County and other northern counties. Jackson said Obama would also likely pick up a few downstate Democratic-leaning counties, such St. Clair County in the Metro East area near St. Louis.
Republicans predict a similar outcome. “I think you’re going to see a different election in Illinois, and I think you’re going to see a pretty good showing by Romney. Look, [Obama] is going to do very well in the city. We know that. But I don’t think you’re going to see the type of results in the collar counties and downstate that you saw the last time,” Illinois House Minority Leader Tom Cross said earlier this summer. However, Jackson said that Romney is unlikely to give other Republican candidates much of a boost, either. “I think symbolically, the Republicans will run with Romney. I am not sure he will make that much difference.” Jackson said Illinois Democrats are in danger of their base not feeling pressured to get to the polls because they feel that Obama will have no trouble winning the state. “The Democrats need to guard against that. The need to work pretty hard, not because of Obama but because of the other races [on the ticket].”
Jackson said that the so-called coattail effect of a presidential race is often overestimated in the lead up to the election. “The president rarely has much by way of coattails. I don’t expect strong coattails except on the issue of get-out-the vote drives.” In his 2009 paper, Jackson wrote that Republican might have overestimated the power of Obama’s coattails in 2008. “The Republicans especially fretted publicly over a potential ‘coattail’ effect from the Obama campaign harming the down-ballot Republican candidates’ races. There were predictions of further Republican losses in the Illinois congressional delegation and in the Illinois House and Senate because of the feared Obama electoral tide. Most of that fear proved to be unfounded or at least exaggerated in the end.”
Redfield said that the new legislative districts, which were drawn by Democrats, and changes in demographics will play a much larger role in state legislative races. However, he pointed out that the general election is still a ways off, and the presidential race could end up being more of a factor than expected. “Clearly, we don’t know what things are going to look like two months from now,” he said. “If it’s highly competitive, or even if Romney is pulling ahead [nationally], that’s going to generate enthusiasm.”
Redfield said Democrats drew districts with an eye toward protecting the downstate incumbents while carving out new districts in the suburbs. “I think the map is defensive downstate and aggressive in the suburbs.” He added: “You could end up with a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate with a smaller percentage of downstate members in the caucus. In fact, I think that’s likely that there will be fewer downstate Democrats after this race.” Redfield said downstate Democrats face tough races, and when they do leave their seats, be it through losses at the polls or retirement, voters would likely replace some of them with Republicans. “Downstate is a problem for Democrats. I mean, there’s absolutely no questions about that.”
He said the potential for fewer downstate Democrats and fewer suburban Republicans could lead to more regional conflicts in the future. “Any time Chicago and the suburbs agree on an issue, downstate [would be] in trouble.”
Jackson said his biggest concern about the results of the presidential election is whether the winner can be effective. If Obama wins, he faces the possibility of pitching his policy ideas to a Republican majority in the U.S. House and maybe a Republican-controlled Senate. Jackson predicts that the national struggle for control of the U.S. Senate will be a nail biter. “I think that is the question. I think it’s so close in so many of the races it kind of depends on who’s got the best ground game.” If Romney wins, he could face a Democrat-controlled Senate. Or if Republicans gain a slim majority in the Senate, they may get a taste of their own medicine if Democrats use the same procedural moves that Republicans have during Obama’s first term to freeze big votes in the chamber.
Jackson says he is “cautiously pessimistic” about the potential for either candidate to achieve much in the way of policy changes after he is sworn in. “I’m looking for gridlock being the most likely outcome again.”
While the presidential election has captured the nation’s attention, Illinois political scientists say that the shifting regional demographics and the state’s new electoral maps will have a much larger impact on down-ticket legislative races in Illinois than the candidates at the top of the ballot.
“[President Barack] Obama will carry Illinois comfortably,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at the Southern Illinois University. The president won the state with about 62 percent of the vote in 2008. Recent polling suggests that his popularity in Illinois has slipped since but still shows him leading Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a strong margin.
Even many Illinois Republicans admit that it is likely Obama will win his home state in the upcoming general election. "Let's face it: If Mitt Romney would win Illinois, he'd win by a biblical landslide nationwide. But I think Mitt Romney is going to run much better in Illinois than John McCain ran because I don't think Barack Obama is going to do that well in Illinois," former Gov. Jim Edgar told reporters at the Republican National Convention. Edgar said unpopular Democratic leaders such as Obama and Gov. Pat Quinn do not seem to be assets for Illinois Democrats running for state legislative seats.
“Where Obama’s numbers are not good downstate, and where Quinn’s numbers are not good, the Democrats are going to try to make the elections as local as possible,” said Kent Redfield, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. “You’re going to see Democrats downstate running away from the national ticket, away from Gov. Quinn.”
In 2008, Obama carried 30 counties that previous Democratic presidential candidates John Kerry and Al Gore lost. Jackson — who looked at the 2008 results in his 2009 paper entitled, "The Anatomy of President Barack Obama’s General Election Victory in Illinois" — said it is likely that Obama will lose some of that ground this time around. He said an Obama win would likely look more like Quinn’s 2010 gubernatorial victory, with the president taking Democratic strongholds, such as Cook County and other northern counties. Jackson said Obama would also likely pick up a few downstate Democratic-leaning counties, such St. Clair County in the Metro East area near St. Louis.
Republicans predict a similar outcome. “I think you’re going to see a different election in Illinois, and I think you’re going to see a pretty good showing by Romney. Look, [Obama] is going to do very well in the city. We know that. But I don’t think you’re going to see the type of results in the collar counties and downstate that you saw the last time,” Illinois House Minority Leader Tom Cross said earlier this summer. However, Jackson said that Romney is unlikely to give other Republican candidates much of a boost, either. “I think symbolically, the Republicans will run with Romney. I am not sure he will make that much difference.” Jackson said Illinois Democrats are in danger of their base not feeling pressured to get to the polls because they feel that Obama will have no trouble winning the state. “The Democrats need to guard against that. The need to work pretty hard, not because of Obama but because of the other races [on the ticket].”
Jackson said that the so-called coattail effect of a presidential race is often overestimated in the lead up to the election. “The president rarely has much by way of coattails. I don’t expect strong coattails except on the issue of get-out-the vote drives.” In his 2009 paper, Jackson wrote that Republican might have overestimated the power of Obama’s coattails in 2008. “The Republicans especially fretted publicly over a potential ‘coattail’ effect from the Obama campaign harming the down-ballot Republican candidates’ races. There were predictions of further Republican losses in the Illinois congressional delegation and in the Illinois House and Senate because of the feared Obama electoral tide. Most of that fear proved to be unfounded or at least exaggerated in the end.”
Redfield said that the new legislative districts, which were drawn by Democrats, and changes in demographics will play a much larger role in state legislative races. However, he pointed out that the general election is still a ways off, and the presidential race could end up being more of a factor than expected. “Clearly, we don’t know what things are going to look like two months from now,” he said. “If it’s highly competitive, or even if Romney is pulling ahead [nationally], that’s going to generate enthusiasm.”
Redfield said Democrats drew districts with an eye toward protecting the downstate incumbents while carving out new districts in the suburbs. “I think the map is defensive downstate and aggressive in the suburbs.” He added: “You could end up with a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate with a smaller percentage of downstate members in the caucus. In fact, I think that’s likely that there will be fewer downstate Democrats after this race.” Redfield said downstate Democrats face tough races, and when they do leave their seats, be it through losses at the polls or retirement, voters would likely replace some of them with Republicans. “Downstate is a problem for Democrats. I mean, there’s absolutely no questions about that.”
He said the potential for fewer downstate Democrats and fewer suburban Republicans could lead to more regional conflicts in the future. “Any time Chicago and the suburbs agree on an issue, downstate [would be] in trouble.”
Jackson said his biggest concern about the results of the presidential election is whether the winner can be effective. If Obama wins, he faces the possibility of pitching his policy ideas to a Republican majority in the U.S. House and maybe a Republican-controlled Senate. Jackson predicts that the national struggle for control of the U.S. Senate will be a nail biter. “I think that is the question. I think it’s so close in so many of the races it kind of depends on who’s got the best ground game.” If Romney wins, he could face a Democrat-controlled Senate. Or if Republicans gain a slim majority in the Senate, they may get a taste of their own medicine if Democrats use the same procedural moves that Republicans have during Obama’s first term to freeze big votes in the chamber.
Jackson says he is “cautiously pessimistic” about the potential for either candidate to achieve much in the way of policy changes after he is sworn in. “I’m looking for gridlock being the most likely outcome again.”
Friday, August 17, 2012
House expels Smith, but he could return
By Jamey Dunn
The Illinois House expelled Derrick Smith today, but the embattled former representative could return to the ranks of the body if voters choose to vote him in this November.
The vote to expel Smith, who allegedly took a bribe in exchange for an official act, came as no surprise. The House disciplinary committee that recommended expulsion voted unanimously that Smith was at fault, and all but one member recommended expelling him. Smith was not present at the disciplinary hearing or during today’s vote. One hundred members voted in favor of kicking Smith out, while six voted against it. Three lawmakers voted “present.” The vote took effect immediately, and Smith’s name was removed from the House roll. It is the first time House members have expelled one of their own since 1905.
Smith was arrested in March and is accused of taking a $7,000 bribe in exchange for writing a letter of recommendation for a daycare center he believed was seeking a state grant. Smith was the subject of a federal sting, and the daycare was not actually seeking the grant. “Using one’s office for personal gain not for the public good is an affront to the core reputation of every legislator. To act in this way is to me a stunning violation of the oath of office each of us has promised to uphold. I can think of no greater breach of the public trust,” said Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, who served on the committee that recommended expelling Smith. Several House members said that if Smith had gone under oath and denied that he had taken a bribe, today’s vote likely would have not occurred. Since the disciplinary committee had little evidence to work with other than the criminal complaint against Smith, Currie said it would have been difficult to refute the claims Smith could have made.
Elmhurst Republican Rep. Dennis Reboletti said that House members should take the information in the criminal complaint at “face value” because Smith never denied any of the allegations against him. “When you get down to the heart of the matter, Rep. Smith chose not to testify in front of us. He chose not to deny that those conversations [regarding the alleged bribe] in that affidavit ... ever took place. He had three opportunities in front of our special investigative committee to do so,” said Reboletti, who served on a preliminary committee that decided whether there was enough evidence to proceed with disciplinary action against Smith. Smith was allowed to plead the Fifth Amendment, which protects against self-incrimination, and choose not to testify in front of any of the House members. However, unlike in criminal court, House members were able to take his choice not to testify into consideration when decided whether to expel him from the chamber.
Those opposed to booting Smith did not defend his alleged actions, but they urged the lawmakers to wait until there was more evidence. They said that Smith had likely opted not to testify under oath because his lawyer advised him not to. Rep. Mary Flowers, a Chicago Democrat, called the proceedings “a dog and pony show.” She said that expelling somebody over unproven allegations sets a dangerous precedent. Flowers also noted that today’s vote means that lawmakers may have few options to get rid of Smith if he is elected to the House in November.
If Smith wins his bid in the general election, the House cannot expel him again over the same offense. He won his primary election race in the 10th House District with 77 percent of the vote. “He’s still on the ballot. And it is ‘we the people’, the people of his district that will have the say. They will be the ones to say if Mr. Smith will come back to this House or not,” she said. “There’s nothing that we will do here today that will stop him from coming back. And then what?”
Rep. Jim Durkin, who helped argue the case against Smith in front of the disciplinary committee, said that since Smith is the subject of an ongoing investigation, there is a possibility that he might face other criminal charges in the future. Durkin, a Republican from Western Springs, said if that were to happen, Smith could be expelled over another charge. “My hunch is that this case is not completely done,” he said. “If that is not the case [and he wins the election,] then Rep. Smith will be sworn in and seated next January because we can’t remove him for the charges for which we removed him today. However, Durkin said that the charge against Smith is so serious that it was necessary to take action and not wait until after the election.
Smith told reporters at a Chicago news conference that he was “sad” about today's vote. But he said there is a silver lining. "I am happy because through this ordeal, I have been able to learn who my friends are," Smith said. He said he plans to remain on the ballot. Many Democrats, including Smith’s former political ally Secretary of State Jesse White, have thrown support behind his opponent, third-party candidate Lance Tyson.
The Illinois House expelled Derrick Smith today, but the embattled former representative could return to the ranks of the body if voters choose to vote him in this November.The vote to expel Smith, who allegedly took a bribe in exchange for an official act, came as no surprise. The House disciplinary committee that recommended expulsion voted unanimously that Smith was at fault, and all but one member recommended expelling him. Smith was not present at the disciplinary hearing or during today’s vote. One hundred members voted in favor of kicking Smith out, while six voted against it. Three lawmakers voted “present.” The vote took effect immediately, and Smith’s name was removed from the House roll. It is the first time House members have expelled one of their own since 1905.
Smith was arrested in March and is accused of taking a $7,000 bribe in exchange for writing a letter of recommendation for a daycare center he believed was seeking a state grant. Smith was the subject of a federal sting, and the daycare was not actually seeking the grant. “Using one’s office for personal gain not for the public good is an affront to the core reputation of every legislator. To act in this way is to me a stunning violation of the oath of office each of us has promised to uphold. I can think of no greater breach of the public trust,” said Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, who served on the committee that recommended expelling Smith. Several House members said that if Smith had gone under oath and denied that he had taken a bribe, today’s vote likely would have not occurred. Since the disciplinary committee had little evidence to work with other than the criminal complaint against Smith, Currie said it would have been difficult to refute the claims Smith could have made.
Elmhurst Republican Rep. Dennis Reboletti said that House members should take the information in the criminal complaint at “face value” because Smith never denied any of the allegations against him. “When you get down to the heart of the matter, Rep. Smith chose not to testify in front of us. He chose not to deny that those conversations [regarding the alleged bribe] in that affidavit ... ever took place. He had three opportunities in front of our special investigative committee to do so,” said Reboletti, who served on a preliminary committee that decided whether there was enough evidence to proceed with disciplinary action against Smith. Smith was allowed to plead the Fifth Amendment, which protects against self-incrimination, and choose not to testify in front of any of the House members. However, unlike in criminal court, House members were able to take his choice not to testify into consideration when decided whether to expel him from the chamber.
Those opposed to booting Smith did not defend his alleged actions, but they urged the lawmakers to wait until there was more evidence. They said that Smith had likely opted not to testify under oath because his lawyer advised him not to. Rep. Mary Flowers, a Chicago Democrat, called the proceedings “a dog and pony show.” She said that expelling somebody over unproven allegations sets a dangerous precedent. Flowers also noted that today’s vote means that lawmakers may have few options to get rid of Smith if he is elected to the House in November.
If Smith wins his bid in the general election, the House cannot expel him again over the same offense. He won his primary election race in the 10th House District with 77 percent of the vote. “He’s still on the ballot. And it is ‘we the people’, the people of his district that will have the say. They will be the ones to say if Mr. Smith will come back to this House or not,” she said. “There’s nothing that we will do here today that will stop him from coming back. And then what?”
Rep. Jim Durkin, who helped argue the case against Smith in front of the disciplinary committee, said that since Smith is the subject of an ongoing investigation, there is a possibility that he might face other criminal charges in the future. Durkin, a Republican from Western Springs, said if that were to happen, Smith could be expelled over another charge. “My hunch is that this case is not completely done,” he said. “If that is not the case [and he wins the election,] then Rep. Smith will be sworn in and seated next January because we can’t remove him for the charges for which we removed him today. However, Durkin said that the charge against Smith is so serious that it was necessary to take action and not wait until after the election.
Smith told reporters at a Chicago news conference that he was “sad” about today's vote. But he said there is a silver lining. "I am happy because through this ordeal, I have been able to learn who my friends are," Smith said. He said he plans to remain on the ballot. Many Democrats, including Smith’s former political ally Secretary of State Jesse White, have thrown support behind his opponent, third-party candidate Lance Tyson.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Court tosses out campaign finance limits for independent PACs
By Jamey Dunn
A week before the Illinois primary election, a federal court tossed out a piece of the state law that limits campaign contributions.
The court granted pro-choice political action committee Personal PAC’s request for a permanent ban on the amount donors can give to such groups. Previously, individual donors were capped at $10,000 and corporations and unions could only give $20,000. But after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United vs. the Federal Election Commission, Personal PAC argued that such limits are unconstitutional, and U.S. District Judge Marvin Aspen agreed.
The Supreme Court found that limiting how much groups spent independently from candidates violated their free speech. Personal PAC argued that limiting how much they can raise on such efforts, known as independent expenditures, violated their First Amendment rights as well. “Personal PAC sought to bring Illinois campaign finance law into compliance with what the First Amendment supports. We are thrilled that the Court ruled quickly and in our favor,” Terry Gosgrove, president and chief operating officer of Personal PAC, said in a written statement. The group claims that it has already missed out on about $100,000 in contributions that it would have raised without the caps and was holding a check for more than $17,000 it could not deposit under the state’s campaign finance laws that went into effect last year.
The group also asked the court for permission to form more than one political action committee. The new campaign finance reform laws barred organizations from having more than one committee. The ruling allows such groups to create second committees that would be used solely for independent expenditures, and they would be allowed to raise unlimited funds. “Personal PAC asserts that it only seeks to vindicate its right to create a separate PAC that would solely engage in independent expenditures, and once doing so, to receive unlimited contributions. In other words, it is not proposing to make independent expenditures and direct contributions from the same PAC,” the opinion stated.
“It’s about the decision I expected,” said Kent Redfield, director of the Sunshine Project, a nonprofit campaign contribution database connected to the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform. “It seems like a reasonable extension of Citizens United, although it is an issue the court has not considered.”
But Redfield and others take issue with the logic of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling. “The fiction of Citizens United is that because it is an independent expenditure, the people making the independent expenditure are promoting a candidate and there’s no policy component, no quid pro quo, so there can’t be corruption or the appearance of corruption,” Redfield said. “It will be a way for people to funnel large contributions to support a candidate.”
However, he said that today’s decision is likely to have a larger effect on the 2014 governor’s race than it will on this year’s legislative elections because the legislative leaders are so well-funded and there are relatively few races that are actually up for grabs in November. “Elect someone independent from [House Speaker Michael Madigan]?” he asked. “It didn’t work out really well for [former governor] Rod Blagojevich and his Move Illinois Forward PAC.”
Redfield predicts super PACs will support single candidates in the 2014 races for governor and other statewide offices — much like the ones that have been making unlimited independent expenditures for Republican candidates during the presidential primaries and others that have been collecting money to help President Barack Obama's reelection bid. “The real muddling thing in all of this is, when you get to single-candidate independent-expenditure PACs,” he said, “is there a wink and a nod? … Is there leverage in terms of if certain things don’t happen you’re not going to get any support in the next election?”
A week before the Illinois primary election, a federal court tossed out a piece of the state law that limits campaign contributions.
The court granted pro-choice political action committee Personal PAC’s request for a permanent ban on the amount donors can give to such groups. Previously, individual donors were capped at $10,000 and corporations and unions could only give $20,000. But after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United vs. the Federal Election Commission, Personal PAC argued that such limits are unconstitutional, and U.S. District Judge Marvin Aspen agreed.
The Supreme Court found that limiting how much groups spent independently from candidates violated their free speech. Personal PAC argued that limiting how much they can raise on such efforts, known as independent expenditures, violated their First Amendment rights as well. “Personal PAC sought to bring Illinois campaign finance law into compliance with what the First Amendment supports. We are thrilled that the Court ruled quickly and in our favor,” Terry Gosgrove, president and chief operating officer of Personal PAC, said in a written statement. The group claims that it has already missed out on about $100,000 in contributions that it would have raised without the caps and was holding a check for more than $17,000 it could not deposit under the state’s campaign finance laws that went into effect last year.
The group also asked the court for permission to form more than one political action committee. The new campaign finance reform laws barred organizations from having more than one committee. The ruling allows such groups to create second committees that would be used solely for independent expenditures, and they would be allowed to raise unlimited funds. “Personal PAC asserts that it only seeks to vindicate its right to create a separate PAC that would solely engage in independent expenditures, and once doing so, to receive unlimited contributions. In other words, it is not proposing to make independent expenditures and direct contributions from the same PAC,” the opinion stated.
“It’s about the decision I expected,” said Kent Redfield, director of the Sunshine Project, a nonprofit campaign contribution database connected to the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform. “It seems like a reasonable extension of Citizens United, although it is an issue the court has not considered.”
But Redfield and others take issue with the logic of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling. “The fiction of Citizens United is that because it is an independent expenditure, the people making the independent expenditure are promoting a candidate and there’s no policy component, no quid pro quo, so there can’t be corruption or the appearance of corruption,” Redfield said. “It will be a way for people to funnel large contributions to support a candidate.”
However, he said that today’s decision is likely to have a larger effect on the 2014 governor’s race than it will on this year’s legislative elections because the legislative leaders are so well-funded and there are relatively few races that are actually up for grabs in November. “Elect someone independent from [House Speaker Michael Madigan]?” he asked. “It didn’t work out really well for [former governor] Rod Blagojevich and his Move Illinois Forward PAC.”
Redfield predicts super PACs will support single candidates in the 2014 races for governor and other statewide offices — much like the ones that have been making unlimited independent expenditures for Republican candidates during the presidential primaries and others that have been collecting money to help President Barack Obama's reelection bid. “The real muddling thing in all of this is, when you get to single-candidate independent-expenditure PACs,” he said, “is there a wink and a nod? … Is there leverage in terms of if certain things don’t happen you’re not going to get any support in the next election?”
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